The Cincinnati Bengals had a bit of a slow start to the 2022 season, but with two games left to go on the season, they find themselves in full control of the AFC North. The Bengals have reemerged as the frontrunner to win their division, and they could clinch the division as soon as Week 17 if things end up going their way.

The problem for the Bengals is that there's a decent chance things won't go their way in Week 17. Cincy runs into the Buffalo Bills in Week 17, before taking on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 in a game that could end up deciding who wins the AFC North. So while Cincy is in a good spot, their playoff seed is not exactly set in stone just yet.

Despite that, the Bengals have the inside track to locking up the top spot in their division, which would likely see them end up as the three seed in the AFC. But could this end up actually being a nightmare scenario for Cincinnati? Let's take a look at what that nightmare scenario would be for the Bengals, and see why things could end up going off the rails for them so soon in the playoffs.

Bengals nightmare playoff scenario

The Bengals team that made it all the way to the Super Bowl last season didn't exactly have the toughest path to the playoffs. Their wild card round and divisional round matchups against the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans weren't particularly tough, but the same cannot be said for the AFC Championship Game victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

You can make an argument that the current Bengals squad is better than the team they had last season, but even if that's the case, their path in the playoffs doesn't look like it's going to be any easier. The AFC has some really strong teams set to make a playoff run, and while the Bengals are one of those teams, that doesn't mean they are going to be the favorite.

Right now, the Bengals have a one game lead on the Ravens in their division, although it's worth noting that Baltimore currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker between these two squads. That makes their Week 18 matchup extremely important, unless the Bengals beat the Bills and the Ravens lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17, which doesn't seem too likely to happen.

There's a decent chance that whoever ends up winning the Week 18 contest between these two squads will end up winning the division. But do the Bengals even want to win the division? There's a chance that they may be better off ending up with a wild card spot and trying to make a run to the Super Bowl through that path than winning the division.

Right now, the Bengals are the three seed, which is the seed the AFC North winner will almost certainly hold when the playoffs start. That would put them in line for a wild card matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, who haven't exactly been great this season, but are still a dangerous team nonetheless. The Chargers aren't exactly the team you are going to want to open the playoffs against.

If the Bengals weren't able to win their division, that would put them in the fifth seed, and give them a wild card matchup with the winner of the AFC South, which is seeming more and more likely to be the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars currently don't have a record above .500, and would obviously be a much more friendly first-round matchup for Cincy.

At this stage, it seems like the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are locked into the top two seeds in the AFC, although that could quickly change if the Bengals beat the Bills this upcoming week. If Cincy ends up being the three seed or lower, they will have to go through at least one of these teams to make it to the Super Bowl, which is a pretty daunting challenge.

That doesn't really change if they are the three seed or the five seed. So if that is pretty much all but guaranteed, what's the difference in winning the division and being the top wild card spot? Based on what we have seen, it seems pretty beneficial to be the five seed in the AFC right now. Even if the Bengals beat the Chargers as the three seed, they would likely have a date in store with the Chiefs in the divisional round.

The best case scenario for the Bengals would be to end up as one of the top two seeds, as it would at least give them home field advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. But right now, it seems like Cincy is going to have a pretty difficult path through the playoffs, and their nightmare scenario might actually come into play if they end up winning the division, so maybe they want to reconsider what they want to do over the final two games of the season.