UFC Shanghai: Nassourdine Imavov versus Caio Borralho continues on the prelims fight between Benoit Saint-Denis and Mauricio Ruffy in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Saint-Denis-Ruffy prediction and pick.
Benoit Saint-Denis (14-3, 1 NC) comes into UFC Paris after rebounding with a submission of Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315. Prior to that, he dropped back-to-back fights—suffering a TKO loss to Renato Moicano via doctor stoppage and a KO defeat to Dustin Poirier, marking his most recent setbacks.
Maurício Ruffy (12-1) storms into UFC Paris riding a three-fight UFC win streak, including an electrifying first-round spinning wheel kick KO of King Green and a dominant TKO of Jamie Mullarkey. Ruffy’s only career loss came via second-round KO to Manoel Sousa in 2019, showcasing rare vulnerability amidst his highlight finishes.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris odds: Benoit Saint-Denis-Mauricio Ruffy odds
Benoit Saint-Denis: +150
Mauricio Ruffy: -180
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Benoit Saint-Denis will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kyle Prepolec – SUB R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 (4 KO/TKO/10 SUB)
Benoit Saint-Denis can defeat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC Paris by leveraging relentless pressure, a world-class submission arsenal, and home crowd intensity. Saint-Denis excels at forcing clinch battles and chaining takedowns behind powerful southpaw combinations, making it difficult for explosive strikers like Ruffy to operate at their preferred range.
On the mat, Saint-Denis’ top control and dangerous submission skills are proven—he’s adept at riding positions, attacking from half guard, and unleashing effective ground-and-pound to open windows for chokes. While Ruffy’s range and wheel-kick threats are dangerous at distance, Saint-Denis’ leg kicks and inside-the-pocket power make him a constant threat if he closes the gap.
Saint-Denis’ key path is to withstand Ruffy’s early flurries, get to the bodylock, and bring the fight into grinding clinch sequences or ground scrambles. Parisian energy should fuel his aggression, and experience against top-10 names gives him a composure edge. If Saint-Denis forces extended grappling exchanges, Ruffy could fade—setting up late-round damage or a submission.
If he executes his wrestling-heavy game plan, Saint-Denis’ pressure could win rounds and possibly finish Ruffy as the fight progresses in front of a raucous home crowd.
Why Mauricio Ruffy will win
- Last Fight: (W) King Green – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 11 (11 KO/TKO)
Mauricio Ruffy holds the tools to pull off an upset over Benoit Saint-Denis at UFC Paris, thanks to his explosive striking and devastating knockout power. With 10 of his 12 wins coming by finish—including a viral spinning wheel kick KO—he can capitalize on his opponent's tendency to absorb damage during aggressive entries.
Ruffy’s footwork and ability to control range could allow him to avoid Saint-Denis’ grappling-heavy game plan, especially if he maintains the fight in open space and uses lateral movement to frustrate takedown attempts. While Saint-Denis thrives in chaos, Ruffy’s sharp counters, powerful kicks, and quick hands make him dangerous whenever the Frenchman overcommits or leaves openings during pressure sequences.
Should Ruffy keep the contest standing, his striking variety—mixing body kicks, spinning attacks, and punishing jabs—provides multiple avenues to disrupt Saint-Denis’ rhythm and score big moments with the judges or find a finish. His recent surge of UFC knockout wins proves he can rise to the occasion, even in hostile territory.
If Saint-Denis can’t consistently bring the fight to the ground, Ruffy’s knockout threat could sway the contest dramatically, earning him the statement victory and silencing the Parisian crowd.
Final Benoit Saint-Denis-Mauricio Ruffy prediction & pick
Mauricio Ruffy is poised to shock the Paris crowd and defeat Benoit Saint-Denis thanks to his dynamic finishing ability and evolving fight IQ. Ruffy enters on a major win streak and carries highlight-reel knockout power, particularly with creative spinning attacks and cage-cutting combinations that expose Saint-Denis’ frequent defensive gaps.
If Ruffy controls range early, he can sidestep Saint-Denis’s relentless pressure and stuff takedown attempts, forcing the Frenchman to stand and trade. Saint-Denis has shown toughness but also a tendency to absorb significant damage, especially when forced into extended striking exchanges against high-level opponents.
Ruffy’s confidence and momentum, along with his willingness to take risks, should serve him well in the enemy’s backyard. Expect him to punish Saint-Denis whenever he lunges in for grappling, and capitalize on openings with power counters, body kicks, or a sudden finish if Saint-Denis’ head movement falters.
As pressure mounts, look for Ruffy’s precision and timing to tilt momentum and earn him a spectacular TKO or decision win over the French favorite—propelling the Brazilian into lightweight contention while silencing the Accor Arena faithful.
Final Benoit Saint-Denis-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Mauricio Ruffy (-180), Over 1.5 Rounds (-166)
