UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the main card with a fight between Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moreno-Taira prediction and pick.
Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) rebounded from consecutive setbacks with back-to-back five-round unanimous decisions over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg, reasserting himself as an elite flyweight. The former champion’s volume, pace, and championship experience remain elite as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tatsuro Taira.
Tatsuro Taira (17-1) enters UFC 323 off a second-round face crank submission of Hyun Sung Park in August, rebounding from a gritty split decision loss to Brandon Royval in October 2024. The Japanese phenom’s elite grappling and sharp striking have defined his undefeated UFC run as he comes into his fight this weekend against Brandon Moreno.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 odds: Brandon Moreno-Tatsuro Taira odds
Brandon Moreno: +110
Tatsuro Taira: -130
Over 2.5 rounds: -345
Under 2.5 rounds: +250
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Why Brandon Moreno will win
- Last Fight: (W) Steve Erceg – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 16 (5 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Brandon Moreno’s experience edge at the elite level is a massive factor against Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323. He has gone 25 hard minutes multiple times against champions, consistently showing championship cardio, volume, and composure that a still-developing Taira has yet to prove over that kind of adversity.
On the feet, Moreno should be the cleaner, busier striker, averaging more significant strikes per minute and showing a deeper shot selection than Taira’s more measured single-shot approach. If he maintains his usual pace, jabs in combination, and kicks the legs and body, he can win minutes and keep Taira reacting rather than setting up entries.
Defensively and in scrambles, Moreno has already passed tougher grappling tests, surviving and often reversing dangerous positions against Deiveson Figueiredo, Pantoja, and Albazi. Taira’s top control and submission game are real threats, but Moreno’s Granby rolls, wall-walks, and constant offense from bad spots make it very hard to hold him down for long stretches.
Over three rounds, that combination of output, scrambling, and durability should allow Moreno to survive early grappling storms and take over late. Expect some hairy moments on the mat, but the lean is Brandon Moreno by competitive decision, landing the cleaner strikes and doing just enough defensively to edge Taira on the cards.
Why Tatsuro Taira will win
- Last Fight: (W) Hyun Sung Park – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 13 (5 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Tatsuro Taira has the exact kind of top-game and control-heavy grappling that can neutralize Brandon Moreno’s volume at UFC 323. His UFC stat profile shows elite control-time numbers for flyweight, with long stretches of dominant top position and a steady diet of back-takes and rides that bank rounds.
Moreno is far more proven at the championship level, but he has also given up extended control to strong grapplers and can be taken down when pressured behind the jab. If Taira chains takedowns off his straight right and level changes in the open, he can force Moreno to constantly work from bottom, where the Mexican’s offense is more about scrambling than true sweeps or submissions.
From there, Taira’s ability to float on top, re-ride the back, and threaten with chokes makes every scramble costly for Moreno. Even if he does not find a finish, three to four minutes of control per round—especially on the back or in half-guard—will read very clearly to judges in a three-round fight.
On the feet, Taira is improving enough defensively to avoid getting badly outclassed, especially if he kicks from range and uses strikes only to set up entries. With youth, momentum, and a suffocating grappling style, Taira is a live pick to grind out a decision or snatch a back-take submission over an increasingly hittable, scramble-reliant Moreno on Saturday night.
Final Brandon Moreno-Tatsuro Taira prediction & pick
This is a true generational-crossroads fight, pitting Moreno’s championship mileage against Taira’s surging, control-heavy grappling game. Oddsmakers and many analysts see it as close to a pick’em, with a slight lean toward Taira’s youth and momentum, but with clear paths for both men.
On the feet, Moreno appears to have the edge in volume, variety, and comfort in wild exchanges. If he can keep this largely standing, work behind his jab and kicks, and force Taira into reactive entries, he should win plenty of minutes and land the cleaner combinations for the judges.
However, Taira’s ability to convert even half-committed shots into long stretches of back control and top time is a serious equalizer. Moreno’s scrambling style wins him positions but can also concede extended control, and three rounds of takedown attempts plus body-locks against the fence likely favor the younger grappler over time.
Given Taira’s improving striking defense, his elite back-taking, and the way judges increasingly reward control, the lean is ever so slightly toward the Japanese prospect. Expect Moreno to have his moments and threaten late, but Taira’s takedowns and top control likely bank two of three rounds for a narrow decision win at UFC 323.
Final Brandon Moreno-Tatsuro Taira Prediction & Pick: Tatsuro Taira (-130), Over 2.5 Rounds (-345)
