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The UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Prelims are heating up and we're bringing you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Washington's Chase Hooper will take on Texas' Alexander Hernandez in a can't-miss battle for potential rankings. Check the UFC odds for our Hooper-Hernandez prediction and pick.
Chase Hooper (16-3-1) has gone 8-3 since his UFC debut in 2019. His last loss came to Steve Garcia back in 2022 and he's since won five consecutive fights heading into this bout. With three of those wins coming by submission, he'll hope to keep this streak going with another. Hooper stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.
Alexander Hernandez (16-8) has gone 8-7 inside the UFC since 2018. After a rough 1-4 slide in five fights, Hernandez comes into this bout off back-to-back wins over Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh. He'll hope to build his first winning streak since 2018. Hernandez stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Chase Hooper-Alexander Hernandez Odds
Chase Hooper: -340
Alexander Hernandez: +270
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
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Why Chase Hooper Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jim Miller – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Since his last loss in 2022, Chase Hooper has been on a complete tear through the division, likely to see a ranking next to his name if he's able to take Hernandez out. Since arriving to the UFC at just 19 years old, Hooper has since grown into his body and finally presents a strong physical matchup against his opponents. This, coupled with his world-class grappling is already becoming a problem for the rest of the division.
Hooper's long limbs allow him to find unlikely chokes and locks, but it's his flexibility and dexterity that allow him to bend at peculiar angles, keeping his opponents defending his attempts. He's also very active with ankle locks and heel hooks, so don't be surprised if he looks to roll for the leg throughout this one.
Hooper comes into this fight as the rightful favorite thanks to this current winning streak he's on. However, it's also worth noting that Hooper has greatly improved his striking and actually averages 4.53 significant strikes per minute to his opponent's 4.38. He's also hitting the mark 51% of the time to the 40% of Hernandez, so expect Hooper to be dealing damage throughout this fight.
Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kurt Holobaugh – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Alexander Hernandez has bounced back well over the last two bouts, turning in a full effort over his last six rounds in the octagon. Hernandez is very dominant when he's able to land takedowns and feel confident in his physicality. He'll have a significant strength advantage over Chase Hooper, so it'll be interesting to see how willingly he ties up with his opponent given Hooper's creativity in the grappling.
Hernandez has also been improving on the feet and comes into this fight with a slight power advantage as well. He's been known to flatline opponents when landing cleanly and even the youthful Hooper won't be impervious to his power. Look for Hernandez to throw a ton of feints as he tries to bait Hooper into dipping or shooting for a takedown.
Ultimately, Hernandez will have to approach this fight very patiently and not allow Hooper to catch him off-guard with any submission attempts. He'll likely try to slam Hooper if he tries anything from his closed guard, but we could also see Hernandez avoid the ground all together and try to win this fight on the feet.
Final Chase Hooper-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun matchup as both fighters put their current winning streaks on the line. Chase Hooper has been dominant for the last three years and we're seeing him evolve more and more each time he steps into action. Alexander Hernandez will be looking to prove his worth as he feels he belongs back in the rankings.
Hernandez can see success in this fight if he's able to remain patient and allow Chase Hooper to make his own mistakes. However, given how sharp he's looked over the last few bouts, I expect Hooper to game plan well for this specific opponent as he has every advantage on the ground.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Chase Hooper to get the win here. I expect Alexander Hernandez to be just a bit too aggressive as he gets caught in one of Hoopers submission attempts for an early stoppage.
Final Chase Hooper-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Chase Hooper (-340); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-105)
