The UFC is back in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card as we're back with another betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division on Saturday. Cody Brundage of factoryX Muay Thai will take on MMA Lab's Eric McConico in a banger to open the card. Check out the UFC odds for our Brundage-McConico prediction and pick.
Cody Brundage (11-6-1) has gone 5-5-1-1 in his time with the UFC since 2021. After a recent No Contest ruling, Brundage bounced back with a win over Julian Marquez with a knockout. His last bout was overturned to a Draw decision, so he'll be hoping for a more definitive result in this one. Brundage stands 6 feet tall with a 72-inch reach.
Eric McConico (9-3-1) will be making his second UFC appearance following a debut loss at the hands of Nursulton Ruziboev in February. Riding a five-fight winning streak prior to that, Eric McConico will see his toughest opponent to-date as he searches for his first promotional win. McConico stands 6 feet tall with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 odds: Cody Brundage-Eric McConico odds
Cody Brundage: -175
Eric McConico: +135
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Why Cody Brundage will win
- Last Fight: (D) MansurAbdul-Malik – DRAW
- Last 5: 2-1-1-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Cody Brundage will be looking for a much more definitive result in this fight following No Contest and Draw rulings in two of his last three appearances.
While his last opponent initially got the nod for the win, Brundage put together a solid performance where he actually led the striking totals. In the fight prior, he managed to finish Julian Marquez quickly with a TKO, showing off his knockout power once again.
Cody Brundage is a very athletic Light Heavyweight with a solid takedown defense rate of 63%. While he could be slightly more active with his striking game, he's accurate on 52% of his attempts and has been a much cleaner boxer than his opponent in this one. Moving around the cage and slipping punches will be the key to successfully countering McConico throughout this one.
Cody Brundage is also a very solid grappler, and while he doesn't typically use it as a point of offense, he's been able to use it in a defensive sense when forcing away takedown attempts. He should be able to choose where this fight takes place, hoping for a dirty boxing match on the feet where he can wear on his opponent along the fence.
Why Eric McConico will win
- Last Fight: (W) Nursulton Ruziboev – TKO (right hook, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Eric McConico got a tough draw in facing a strong opponent like Ruziboev during his debut, but he managed to land his own offense nonetheless before getting knocked out.
During his time on the regional circuit, McConico managed to finish opponents with an array of methods, including submissions and body shots. However, we're still waiting to see how he truly adjust to a new UFC level of competition.
McConico hasn't seen much action on the ground up to this point, but his three wins by submission suggest he can handle himself in those situations. He's also participated in grappling matches outside of MMA competition, so Brundage should maybe think twice before willingly engaging McConico in the grappling.
Ultimately, this will come down to McConico remaining patient and allowing Brundage to make a mistake before he does. McConico has been quick to finish opponents in the past, so the slightest opening from Brundage could allow the time he needs to finish this fight with his fists.
Final Cody Brundage-Eric McConico prediction & pick
This should be a solid matchup to open this Fight Night card as both men are capable of ending the bout inside the distance. Cody Brundage is far more experienced in facing UFC-level competition, so he's billed as the rightful favorite in this bout. McConico, on the other hand, will be looking to bounce back in a big way following his debut loss.
Cody Brundage will have the slight wrestling advantage during this fight, but I don't expect these two spending much time on the ground, if any. It seems that both sides know their clearest path to a win is with the knockout, so we should be in for a wild brawl in the opening minutes.
Ultimately, we have to side with Cody Brundage to get the win thanks to his experience with similar opponents in the past. McConico is still finding his footing while we should see a determined Brundage working a smart game plan towards a decision win.
Final Cody Brundage-Eric McConico Prediction & Pick: Cody Brundage (-175)
