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UFC 319 has reached its apex from the United Center in Chicago as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the headlining bout for the UFC's Middleweight (185) belt. South African Champion Dricus du Plessis makes his third title defense against No. 3-ranked Khamzat Chimaev. Check the UFC odds for our Du Plessis-Chimaev prediction and pick.
Dricus du Plessis (23-2) boasts a perfect 9-0 record in serving as the UFC's Middleweight champ. After running through Robert Whittaker and taking the belt from Sean Strickland, he proved himself against Israel Adesanya and looks to continue his run as champion against the UFC's boogeyman. Du Plessis stands 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach
Khamzat Chimaev (14-0) has gone 8-0 during his meteoric rise through the UFC. Labeled as arguably the scariest fighter in the promotion, Chimaev exacts his first title shot following his brutal submission over Robert Whittaker. After pulling out of the previous meeting, Chimaev looks for his ultimate goal as the betting favorite. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Dricus du Plessis-Khamzat Chimaev Odds
Dricus Du Plessis: +210
Khamzat Chimaev: -258
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Dricus du Plessis Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Sean Strickland – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 11 SUB
Dricus du Plessis comes into this fight as the suprising +210 underdog as the champion, a spot that is oftentimes hard to pass up from a betting standpoint. While all the hype in this fight surrounds his opponent, du Plessis has quietly been the UFC's most consistent talent over the last few years. His last few performances indicate he's only getting better and his fight-IQ is currently at an all-time high.
While Khamzat Chimaev poses the ultimate threat of the takedown, du Plessis has been approaching this fight knowing he's likely to get taken down at some point. He trains from compromised positions with a multitude of tough training partners, so he'll fully be prepared whenever things get hairy of Chimaev puts him in a bad spot on the ground.
Du Plessis' greatest advantage during this fight will be his cardio through five rounds, which has always been a question on Chimaev's side. His path to victory will be weathering the early storm and pushing this fight to a place Chimaev doesn't want to be: hurt on the feet with du Plessis blitzing him in the later rounds.
Why Khamzat Chimaev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Robert Whittaker – SUB (face crank, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Khamzat Chimaev made his finish against Robert Whittaker look like a walk in the park, shocking the entire MMA world and showing that he continues to improve his game. While his first pull-out from the original matchup left questions, it's always been known that Chimaev will refuse to fight unless he's completely healthy with no setbacks to his camp. Everyone's fingers will be crossed in hopes to see the best version of him on Saturday.
Chimaev looked massive next to du Plessis during their first meeting, so it'll be interesting to see how his physicality carries into the fight. Du Plessis is known for his solid takedown defense, but he'll be working against a different beast in Chimaev. It'll be up to Khamzat to capitalize on those positions on the ground.
His cardio will also need to be perfect, but he's gone to great lengths to improve that part of his game over the last few fights. His best chance will be to finish this fight in the early rounds and avoid the risk of du Plessis growing stronger as this fight carries on.
Final Dricus du Plessis-Khamzat Chimaev Prediction & Pick
This is the fight everyone has been waiting for and in my opinion, this will go one of two ways. Khamzat Chimaev can easily walk into this fight, take du Plessis down quickly, and submit his way to a quick victory. The betting line is indicative of such and we've seen him reach new levels at this weight class.
Du Plessis, on the other hand, is a master at extending the fight and if he's able to survive Chimaev's early barrage, he should be in good shape by the third, fourth, and fifth rounds.
Neither fighter is greatly at risk of being knocked out thanks to their solid chins. I expect this fight to end in a submission if it doesn't make it to the later rounds. If the total over hits, the champion will be in the better position to win this fight.
Ultimately, while Khamzat Chimaev has a great chance to end this fight early, the betting line should be closer and the Champion is getting overlooked in this case. Simply for the value, we'll roll with Dricus du Plessis to outlast his opponent in a dog fight.
Final Dricus du Plessis-Khamzat Chimaev Prediction & Pick: Dricus du Plessis (+210); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-115)
