The NBA Cup tournament is heating up as we'll see a quarterfinal matchup between to No. 1 and No. 4 seeds in the Eastern Conference. The No. 1 Orlando Magic will host the No. 4 Miami Heat with both teams looking to bounce back from recent slides. Check our NBA Cup odds series for the Heat-Magic prediction and pick.
The Miami Heat finished NBA Group Play with a 3-1 record, securing the No. 4 seed. They're just 1-4 over their last five games and have gone 0-2 against this Orlando Magic team this season, but they come in the surprisingly betting favorites to upset their divisional rivals.
The Orlando Magic secured the East's top seed with a 4-0 record in the NBA Cup thus far. They've won four of their last six games and haven't shown many signs of slowing down during this tournament, so expect a solid effort at home out of the Magic.
Heat vs. Magic Odds
Miami Heat: -3.5 (-105)
Orlando Magic: +3.5 (-115)
Over: 232.5 (-112)
Under: 232.5 (-108)
Heat vs. Magic Key Injuries
Miami: Tyler Herro, Probable (toe) / Pelle Larsson, Probable (hip) / Davion Mitchell, Probable (right groin) / Dru Smith, Questionable (hip)
Orlando: Franz Wagner, OUT (high ankle) / Moritz Wagner, OUT (knee)
Heat vs. Magic Betting Trends
- The Orlando Magic are 9-4 at home. The Miami Heat are 4-7 on the road.
- The Magic are 11-13 ATS overall, 5-8 ATS at home. The Heat are 14-10 ATS overall, 6-5 ATS on the road.
- The Heat are 8-4 as betting favorites. The Magic are 3-3 when listed as underdogs.
- The two teams have split their last 10 meetings at 5-5. The Heat are 7-3 ATS in those meetings.
- The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Keys to Heat vs. Magic Matchup
These two squads will be meeting for the third time this season, but it's been the Orlando Magic gaining the upper hand in this matchup with a 2-0 start. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner took turns leading the games in scoring as the Magic edged their divisional rivals by fewer than five points each time. With Franz Wagner out in this one, expect Paolo Banchero to see an even more extended role in carrying the scoring for the Orlando Magic.
Despite their 0-2 record, the Heat enter this game as the slight betting favorites with Tyler Herro likely to return from his nagging toe injury. He immediately gives his team a scoring boost of 23.8 PPG, which should complement Bam Adebayo's elevated play as of late as well. Adebayo has scored 20+ points in three of his last four, averaging 19.5 PPG against this Orlando Magic team. If he's able to have a solid game in the paint while forcing fouls on Banchero, the Heat could get off to a hot start on the road.
As a matter of fact, the Miami Heat rank as the league's highest scoring first-half team, averaging 32.5 PPG in the first quarter and 31.2 PPG in the second. When leading at halftime, the Miami Heat are 14-10 and would greatly benefit to a hot start in this one.
Still, the Orlando Magic have been a great team at home this season and they defense should be able to offer some resistance against the scoring duo of Herro and Adebayo. Desmond Bane and Wendell Carter Jr. have been monsters on the glass this season, so expect their rebounding to have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Heat vs. Magic Prediction and Pick
The Orlando Magic should be confident heading into this game and despite Tyler Herro returning for the Heat, the Magic were able to post fewer turnovers and take care of the ball in the previous meetings. Franz Wagner may be the most important injury in this game and is likely the reason for the Magic listed as slight underdogs at home.
Still, I like the Magic on the defensive end and I expect a huge performance out of Paolo Banchero in the scoring. He's been wildly efficient with his scoring and creating his own shots, so expect him to lead the charge as the Magic advance.
Final Heat-Magic NBA Cup Prediction & Pick: Orlando Magic +3.5 (-115); OVER 232.5 (-112)
