We're back once more with another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Perth Main Card, this next bout taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. Australia's own Jake Matthews will take on UFC veteran Neil Magny in an exciting clash of talented fighters. Check our UFC odds for the Matthews-Magny prediction and pick.
Jake Matthews (22-7) has gone 15-7 inside the UFC since 2014. After a quick stretch of three fights and a 1-2 skid, Matthews has rebounded nicely with three-straight wins heading into this fight. He managed a first-round submission his last time out, so he's looking for another quick finish in this one. Matthews stands 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach.
Neil Magny (30-13) has gone 23-12 inside the UFC since 2012. While still entering into grappling competitions outside of the UFC, Magny has gone 2-3 over his last five fights and is looking for some consistency as he tries to overcome sizable underdog betting odds. Magny stands 6-foot-3 with an 80-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Jake Matthews-Neil Magny Odds
Jake Matthews: -380
Neil Magny: +300
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Jake Matthews Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Chidi Njokuani – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
After a number of inconsistent spells throughout his UFC run, Jake Matthews has finally been able to string together a number of wins in succession. He's looked like an entirely new fighter, posting unanimous decisions against talented strikers like Phil Rowe and Francisco Prado. His last time out, he went back to his bread and butter by notching a quick submission in the first round. If he continues on this current trajectory, Matthews could find himself in the rankings with a win here.
The size and reach discrepancy will obviously be the biggest challenge here for Matthews as Magny is a master of using his length against opponents in the striking. Nevertheless, Matthews is 42% accurate on his career takedowns and boasts a higher 67% takedown defense opposite of his opponent, so he should be dictating where this fight takes place.
To win this fight, Jake Matthews will have to be aggressive with his striking and time his takedowns perfectly. If he's able to land in top position or take Magny's back, he'll be in a very strong position to win this fight. Still, his betting odds are a bit inflated and his opponent has been known to relish the underdog role in the past.
Why Neil Magny Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Elizeu Zaleski – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Neil Magny makes yet another walk to the UFC octagon following his latest win against Elizeu Zaleski. While Magny faced some adversity during that fight, he was able to dig deep and turn the tides for an exciting finish win. Many of the fights throughout his career have had a similar trajectory and Magny is always a live underdog in situations like this. If he can force Matthews to empty his gas tank early, he should be able to pour it on during the later rounds.
Neil Magny comes into this fight with a complete and well-rounded skill set, so he may take a more reactionary approach when dealing with an explosive, dangerous opponent like Matthews. Still, Magny will be looking to march his opponent down and constantly bother him with striking offense up the middle.
While Magny is billed as the sizable underdog, he's been in this situation many times and has come out a winner on the other end. If he manages to control the striking with his output, it could force Matthews to take a grappling approach. From there, Magny is very proficient on the ground and crafty enough to attempt submissions from compromised positions.
Final Jake Matthews-Neil Magny Prediction & Pick
This will be another great matchup, featuring another exciting hometown Australian fighter. Both men have combined for 24 total years fighting for the UFC, with Matthews on a three-fight winning streak and Magny finishing his last fight by TKO.
In the striking, we should see Magny look more comfortable as he'll have the length and distance to work with. While he's jsut as good on the ground, Matthews is the more dangerous grappler and will have an immediate advantage if he's able to end up on top of Magny.
I expect this fight to be extremely back-and-forth in nature, making for an exciting bout. While Neil Magny will certainly have his moments throughout this fight, I think Matthews is better built for three rounds given his recent streak, with the hometown support putting him over the top. Let's roll with the betting favorite in a hard-fought decision.
Final Jake Matthews-Neil Magny Prediction & Pick: Jake Matthews (-380); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-145)
