UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 continues the prelims with a fight between Ramiz Brahimaj and Austin Vanderford in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Brahimaj-Vanderford prediction and pick.
Ramiz Brahimaj (12-5) bounced back from a decision loss to Themba Gorimbo with two first-round finishes, knocking out Mickey Gall and submitting Billy Ray Goff for a Performance of the Night bonus. The submission ace aims to keep his momentum rolling as he comes into his fight this weekend against Austin Vanderford.
Austin Vanderford (13-2) rebounded from back-to-back Bellator losses to Gegard Mousasi and Aaron Jeffery with two stoppages, including a UFC debut TKO of Nikolay Veretennikov in February 2025. His most recent defeat remains the 2022 first-round TKO to Jeffery as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ramiz Brahimaj.
Here are the UFC 320 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 320 odds: Ramiz Brahimaj-Austin Vanderford odds
Ramiz Brahimaj: +240
Austin Vanderford: -298
Over 1.5 rounds: -238
Under 1.5 rounds: +180
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Why Ramiz Brahimaj will win
- Last Fight: (W) Billy Ray Goff – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 (1 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Ramiz Brahimaj’s clearest path to victory over Austin Vanderford is on the mat, where his submission pedigree and finishing instincts stand out at welterweight. With 12 career wins and the majority by submission, Brahimaj excels at turning brief grappling exchanges into fight-ending sequences, particularly with rear-naked chokes and tight guillotines.
Vanderford is a capable wrestler, but defensive lapses in past defeats show vulnerability when pressured into scrambles and forced to defend chains of submission attempts rather than isolated shots. If Brahimaj proactively hand-fights, creates back-exposes off cage mat-returns, and stays sticky in transitions, he can out-grapple the former Bellator title challenger in key moments.
On the feet, Brahimaj’s improving boxing—paired with level-change threats—can draw reactive shots from Vanderford, opening counters and front-headlock entries that cascade into top control or back takes. Maintaining center control and denying long fence rides will be crucial to keep grappling exchanges dynamic instead of static clinch stalls where Vanderford can bank minutes.
Momentum also favors Brahimaj, who has rebounded from setbacks with quick finishes and earned performance bonuses in the process, reflecting confidence and form. If he survives the early wrestling grind and forces complex grappling scrambles, expect Brahimaj to find a neck or the back and secure a submission win on Saturday.
Why Austin Vanderford will win
- Last Fight: (W) Nikolay Veretennikov – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 (5 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Austin Vanderford’s disciplined wrestling and control-first style are well-suited to neutralize Ramiz Brahimaj’s submission threats on Saturday. A two-time NAIA All-American with strong top pressure, Vanderford lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy and keeps damage low with 2.66 absorbed per minute and 51% striking defense.
Vanderford’s positional awareness—mat returns, wrist rides, and half-guard rides—limits back takes and front-headlock entries that Brahimaj uses to create chokes. By staying safe in guard, forcing fence clinches, and prioritizing shoulder pressure over hurried passes, he can accumulate control without opening submission chains.
The matchup also favors Vanderford in round-winning mechanics. Brahimaj’s defensive metrics include 43% significant strike defense and 44% takedown defense, making him hittable and controllable when forced to address layered offense. If Vanderford jabs into level changes and mixes ground-and-pound with half-guard rides, he can bank minutes and blunt scrambles.
On the feet, Vanderford’s simple but efficient boxing—cross-counters and body work—can draw high-guard reactions that open reactive shots, further tilting time of possession. With better durability indicators and a lower error rate across exchanges, the former Bellator title challenger projects to dictate terms.
Final Ramiz Brahimaj-Austin Vanderford prediction & pick
Austin Vanderford enters UFC 320 as the betting favorite and a stylistic favorite over submission specialist Ramiz Brahimaj. Vanderford’s wrestling pedigree and ground control have proven reliable as he absorbs just 2.66 significant strikes per minute and stuffs 85% of takedowns, allowing him to dictate pace and position against high-risk finishers.
If Vanderford establishes his level changes and mat returns early, he’s likely to accumulate top control and scoring volume, minimizing Brahimaj’s submission opportunities and forcing him to work from defensive guard. On the feet, Vanderford lands at a higher clip and accuracy—4.08 significant strikes per minute at 63%—which could allow him to bank rounds with jab-cross setups and tactical pressure.
Brahimaj, while dangerous off his back, has only a 47% takedown defense rate and absorbs nearly 3.8 strikes per minute, underscoring the risk of being stuck underneath and taking damage round after round. With a slight reach edge and disciplined wrestling, Vanderford has the tools to nullify submission attempts and break his foe’s rhythm over 15 minutes.
Expect Vanderford to secure early takedowns, win top-control battles, and tire Brahimaj as the rounds progress, potentially opening the door for a late ground-and-pound finish but more likely earning a clear unanimous decision.
Final Ramiz Brahimaj-Austin Vanderford Prediction & Pick: Austin Vanderford (-298), Over 1.5 Rounds (-238)
