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After battling injuries and inconsistency for his first few years in the league, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook finally put it all together last year. Amassing almost 2,000 yards from scrimmage, Cook finally got the proverbial monkeys off of his back: the doubts that he could ever carry a star's production out for the course of a full season, the notion that his tendency for injury would keep the Vikings from legitimate contention.
The Vikings offense was a boon for fantasy football, as it facilitated Cook's high-end RB1 numbers, rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson's record-breaking explosion onto the scene, and, of course, the ever-consistent Adam Thielen. Fueled by a leaky defense and Gary Kubiak's silky smooth scheme, Minnesota should continue to be a safe haven for fantasy owners in 2021, with many of the same pieces in place. Kubiak's son, Klint Kubiak, will take over playcalling duties this year, but that shouldn't stop Dalvin Cook from being a top-3 back if healthy. We all know he's great, but is he worth drafting No. 2 overall, as his ADP currently suggests? Let's take a look.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
Cook had a monster 2020 by all accounts, as he toted the rock 312 times for 1557 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), caught 44 passes on 54 targets for 361 receiving yards, and scored 17 total touchdowns (16 rushing, 1 receiving). Because he missed 2 games, he was on pace to break 2,000 scrimmage yards and possibly even 20 total touchdowns over the course of a fully healthy season.
With only 1 game under 15 fantasy points in PPR, and none under 10, Dalvin proved to be game script-proof in 2020, as his role in the offense was clearly defined as the focal point even in games were the Minnesota defense got them into an early hole.
The highlight of his season was far and away Weeks 8 and 9, as Cook ripped the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for a combined 369 rushing yards, 109 receiving yards, and 6 total touchdowns. This mini-stretch was huge for Cook, as he showed that his fantasy ceiling, even in PPR, is just as elite as any back in the league. Performances like these are what elevate teams from playoff-bound to championship winners.
2020 was simply the perfect storm for Dalvin, as the Vikings were a well-oiled machine both through the air and on the ground, but still maintained a heavy run-first approach. Though Justin Jefferson's emergence and Thielen's chemistry with Cousins had to come together without any preseason, Kirk Cousins enjoyed one of the best statistical campaigns of his career (105 passer rating, career-high 35 touchdowns), which opened up far more running lanes than Cook has ever had. This resulted in Dalvin's first ever season with 5 or more yards per carry.
2021 Fantasy Projections
Though the Vikings had a forgettable year as a team last season, it's hard to imagine things going any better for Cook than they did in 2020. Buoyed by an incredibly healthy offensive line, the Vikings sported the league's fourth best total offense, and fifth best rushing attack as well.
Minnesota hasn't had an offense perform so efficiently in years, so it's only reasonable to expect regression, to an extent, in 2021. ESPN currently projects Cook to split the middle between his 2019 and 2020 campaigns, with a 1,372 rushing yard total and 398 receiving yard total, with 14 total touchdowns. The 398 receiving yards would be a modest increase from this past season's 361, but it seems unlikely. If we expect Justin Jefferson to make any sophomore strides whatsoever, that would only make the Vikings attack more vertical than before, and thus continue Cook's trend the past couple seasons of relatively decreased aerial usage. ESPN's projection would still have comfortably placed him as last season's RB3, which is reasonable given the shallow pool of consistent stud RBs.
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Given his history, owners should also expect Cook to miss at least a couple games, and to be limited in a few others. Similarly to “Qulio” Jones (for his frequency of being listed as “questionable” on injury reports), owning Dalvin Cook comes with a certain level of stress over his weekly health and snap capacity, even when he's on the field.
Nonetheless, Dalvin Cook's red flags are few and bar between compared to most backs, and his upside, of course, is stellar.
Rank at Position
Heading into 2021, Cook has an interesting conundrum about him. Though it's hard to see him repeating last year's fantastic season fantasy-wise, there don't seem to be any better options behind Christian McCaffrey.
The only back besides CMC who pushes for the same category of upside as Cook is Alvin Kamara, and possibly Saquon Barkley.
Kamara's uncertain quarterback situation heading into the year raises a red flag, but it also could indicate that whoever winds up with the job in New Orleans could be relying on a lot of short routes out of the backfield for Kamara. Still, without Drew Brees, it's hard to see him replicating his best numbers in the near future.
Barkley is enticing, but do you really want to pick him over Dalvin Cook? Didn't think so.
If you have the number two pick, don't think twice. Let Dalvin cook.
