On Sunday night, the Miami Heat will have another chance to close out the Boston Celtics and advance to their first NBA Finals since 2014.
The Celtics staved off elimination with a 121-108 win in Game 5 on Friday, but still need to earn two more victories to pull off the 3-1 comeback. Of course, 3-1 leads haven't been particularly safe in the bubble.
Ahead of Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, let's examine three basic keys for the Heat to avoid a dreaded Game 7 and instead shift their focus toward the Los Angeles Lakers.
1. Contain Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
This isn't exactly rocket science: when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are at the top of their game, Boston usually wins.
The Celtics are 6-1 in the playoffs when the two wings combine to score over 50 points, and 4-5 when they fall short of that mark. Brown always brings it on defense, but when he's in an offensive groove (and making 3-pointers), the Celtics become nearly unbeatable. Boston is 17-1 this season when Brown scores 25 points or more, per Sporting News. In the conference finals, Brown has scored 26 and 28 points, respectively, in the Celtics' two victories.
In theory, Miami has the experienced wing defenders and switchability to slow down Tatum and Brown, so expect a locked-in defensive effort from Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and the rest.
2. Get more buckets from Bam Adebayo
Adebayo has been outstanding throughout the playoffs, providing essential rim protection, defensive versatility, and playmaking ability on offense.
In Game 5, Adebayo had eight rebounds, eight assists, a block and a steal, but Celtics centers Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter limited him to just 13 points and frustrated him all night.
Bam took the blame for the loss:
“I played like s–,” Adebayo acknowledged postgame on Friday. “Bottom line. I put that game on me. It's not my teammates' fault, it's not my coaches' fault, it's me. … Put that one on me.”
Adebayo isn't an all-world scorer, but Miami will need more from their All-Star to eliminate the Celtics, especially when he's matched up with Kanter. Adebayo had been averaging 21.5 points and 11.0 rebounds through the first four games of the series.
Crucially, Boston was able to get Adebayo in foul trouble in Game 5, which severely hindered his aggression on both ends and on the glass. For the series, Miami has been outscored by 18.6 points per 100 possessions with Adebayo on the bench.
“I wasn't being the defensive anchor that I should have been,” Adebayo said about Game 5. “I don't think I was communicating fast enough. I feel like I was a step behind today.”
Knowing Adebayo's personality and competitiveness, I would not doubt him going into Game 6.
3. Move the basketball and make 3-pointers
Except for Game 4, the winner of the assist battle has won each game in the series. Spoelstra's offense (like Brad Stevens') hums when the ball is moving, enabling open 3-point looks and off-ball cuts.
Miami was able to squeeze out a 112-109 victory in Game 4 despite accruing fewer dimes, but that was largely thanks to rookie Tyler Herro's otherworldly hot hand. Herro dropped 37 points in a performance unmatched by any previous 20-year-old in conference finals history.
Herro remains a dangerous threat, but Miami can't expect that production again. In the Heat's two other wins this series, they won the assist battle, 59-43. Contrastingly, Boston won that battle, 56-48, in its two victories in Games 3 and 5.
It's not the most advanced metric, but surely one that both coaches will cite as an indicator for offensive flow.
Of course, you have to make shots to rack up assists, and the Heat need to do a better job of making 3-pointers created from their ball movement. Miami shot just 7-of-36 on 3-pointers in Game 5 and is at 30.1% from deep for the series.
Game 6 tips off at 7:30 ET on ESPN.
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