The Miami Heat are on the cusp of losing the 2023 NBA Finals after dropping both of their games at home and going down 3-1 in this best-of-seven series versus the Denver Nuggets. The Heat have a chance to salvage their season and they will have to do it on the road in Denver. Miami has survived away from home before.
Miami won Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Can this resilient Heat bunch do it again and stay alive another day? Ahead of Heat-Nuggets Game 5, we'll be making our Heat Game 5 predictions.
Miami had solid contributions all around in Game 5. Their two stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo led the way with strong productive outings. Butler scored 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting and added seven rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Adebayo scored 20 points with 11 rebounds but committed seven turnovers. Four other Heat players scored in double figures — Kyle Lowry had 13 points off the bench, Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love added 12 points apiece, while Caleb Martin tallied 11 points.
Absent from the Heat party — which partly contributed to their loss — was the starting backcourt of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. The two guards combined for just two points on 1-of-10 shooting from the field, including 0-of-7 from beyond the arc.
Both of them, Vincent in particular, have been revelations for the Heat throughout these playoffs. But the two have been MIA for Miami in both of their games at Kaseya Center during the NBA Finals.
The Heat will need all of Jimmy Butler's “teammates” to play their A-games in Game 5, given how loaded and poised the Nuggets are in closing the deal in five. Miami, however, may have other plans. With that said, here are three bold Heat Game 5 predictions.
3. Duncan Robinson will start over Max Strus
We have no idea what goes on in the mind of Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra. But what we do know is that he isn't afraid to make adjustments. Spoelstra made his first chess move when he started Kevin Love in Game 2, which helped them tie up the series back then. But after two gut-wrenching losses at home and now facing elimination on the road, perhaps Spoelstra will make another adjustment — and that is to start Duncan Robinson over Max Strus.
Ironically so, Strus is actually the guy who took the starting job from Robinson. Robinson lost the gig near the end of the 2021-22 season and even lost his spot in the rotation at some point. Meanwhile Strus has become a mainstay in the rotation and has started all 22 of Miami's playoff games. But with the way the NBA Finals has gone for both of them, Spoelstra might just pull Robinson into the first unit and drop Strus to the bench.
Through four games so far, Robinson is averaging 8.5 points and 1.3 assists, while shooting 54.2 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from three. Strus, meanwhile, is averaging just 4.3 points while shooting a horrendous 16.1 percent from the field and 19.2 percent from beyond the arc.
With Robinson and Strus' shooting on polar opposites, Spoelstra might just give the former his starting job back. The Heat have nothing to lose at this point and trying out a different look for Denver's defense to start the game. Meanwhile, Miami has had two straight slow starts. Robinson could give the Heat the early spark they need to get out of the gates rolling.
2. Playoff Jimmy will show up
Is he ever going to show up in the 2023 NBA Finals? Heat fans have been waiting for that to happen since Game 1. Butler hasn't quite had that signature Playoff Jimmy outing that we saw during their first round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, the Heat star had two of them — a 56-point masterclass in Game 4 and a 42-point barrage in Game 5 that shut the door on Milwaukee's season. Butler also had two Playoff Jimmy performances during the 2020 Bubble Finals, where he carried the Heat to wins in Games 3 and 5.
With their backs against the wall, we predict Playoff Jimmy Butler is going to show up with another masterclass and score at least 35 points. He seemingly found a groove in Games 3 and 4 and is noticeably more aggressive with his shot. But Butler is going to need to step it up a notch and be the all-timer Jimmy Butler that we have seen from time to time in the playoffs.
1. Heat fight to live another day
With Butler's heroic performance and Spoelstra's adjustment of putting Robinson into the starting five, the Heat will live to fight another day and force a Game 6 in Miami.
Quite frankly, Miami hasn't been in this situation before in these playoffs. Though, they probably faced more immense pressure during Game 7 of the ECF compared to what they will face in Game 5 in Denver. Much of the pressure now is with Denver to close out the series and win their first ever championship at home. Meanwhile, the Heat don't have anything to lose. They were the underdogs to begin with and almost everybody predicted them to be in this situation.
With less pressure against them, the Heat could play more freely. And with more freedom, they could emerge victorious and bring this back to Miami for another game.
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