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Coming a second World Series title in six seasons in 2022, the Houston Astros were once again among the favorites to win it all in 2023. But a slow start and increased competition within the American League West meant that Houston only finished with 90 wins on the year and did not clinch a playoff spot until the penultimate day of the season. By the Astros' lofty standards, this was an underperformance.
Then came the playoffs. Houston dispatched the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS before running into divisional rivals the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. Houston held a 3-2 lead — one game away from the World Series — before it all fell apart. The Astros will not be defending their MLB title and will now have to look ahead to the 2024 season.
Here are two free agents the Astros must target as they make another push for the World Series this offseason.
Max Muncy (1B, Los Angeles Dodgers)
The Astros did not have many holes this season, but the main one was at first base. The club signed Jose Abreu from the Chicago White Sox on a three-year, $58 million deal and he played nothing like a former American League MVP. Despite 90 RBI on the season, a poor OPS and mediocre fielder meant that Abreu finished with a negative WAR. Backup Jon Singleton was not any better, batting .194 across 25 games.
Abreu has two years left on his contract, but if the Astros want to be World Series contenders next season, they need to fix this issue now. Fortunately for them, the free agent market has a couple of All-Star level players available at the position this winter. The best available candidate is Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy. While he batted just .211 in 2023, his power plus his discipline at the plate meant that he finished with an OPS of .808 on the year. The expected stats show that he played even better than the basic numbers suggest. Muncy finished in the 96th percentile in walk rate and the 90th percentile in expected slugging and barrel percentage.
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The addition of Max Muncy would solve Houston's issues at first base and shore up a team that has very few noticeable weaknesses.
Sonny Gray (SP, Minnesota Twins)
With the likes of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, the Astros' starting pitching was hardly a weakness this year, but improvements still can be made. Outside of this duo, injuries and underperformance hurt a rotation that was supposed to be among the best in baseball. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will not return until some point in 2024, while Lance McCullers Jr. did not pitch a single inning in 2023. Meanwhile, Cristian Javier's ERA jumped two full points and Jose Urquidy's ERA went from 3.94 in 2022 to 5.29 in 2023. Houston's starting pitching ERA of 4.17 was 12th in the Majors.
Will Garcia and McCullers be able to return to top form after serious injuries, and can Javier and Urquidy bounce back after down years? With so many uncertainties in this rotation entering 2024, the club would be smart to invest in another starting pitcher. Minnesota Twins right-hander Sonny Gray is an excellent second or third starter that the Astros can sign without breaking the bank. Gray is coming off a career year in which he had a 2.79 ERA across 184 innings. He also led Major League Baseball in Fielding Independent Pitching and home runs allowed per nine innings.
Sonny Gray is the perfect mid-level starter to solidify an Astros rotation that enters 2024 with so many unknowns.
