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While there are many reasons why people believe the West Coast is considered the best coast, this AL West contest between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros is yet another motive why that statement could prove to be true. It is that time once again for our MLB odds series, where our Mariners-Astros prediction and pick will be unveiled. Let's get down to business!
Standing at 12-10, the Mariners were in the midst of a four-game slide before finally rejoining the win column with a victory over Miami on Sunday by a score of 7-3. Before the losing streak, the Mariners were playing as efficient of baseball as anyone and will look to get back to that with lefty Marco Gonzales on the rubber for game one versus the Astros.
At a nearly identical record of 11-11, the Astros will be appearing in only their seventh home game of the season. After dropping two straight to the Blue Jays over the weekend, right-hander Jake Odorizzi will be tasked with getting Houston back on track.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Astros odds.
MLB odds: Mariners-Astros Odds
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-178)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why the Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners endured their first rough patch of 2022, as they were outscored by the two Florida teams in the Rays and Marlins by a close margin of 16-10. While Seattle certainly could've played worse, they definitely by no means played well. Fortunately, their 7-3 series finale win against the Marlins went as planned, as the Mariners recorded 12 hits and took advantage of Miami's ability to leave runners on base. Seattle will be continuing their extensive road trip on Monday at Minute Maid Park, as the Mariners have no question looked like a lesser group as the visiting team.
Out of the 14 games that Seattle has been underdogs in, the Mariners have won roughly 42.9% of such matchups. To be exact, Seattle has won six of those games, just barely under 50%.
In order to change the narrative of being underdogs and to cover the spread on Monday night, Seattle will need southpaw Marco Gonzales to pitch as effectively as he can when his arsenal of pitches is hitting on all cylinders. Against the Astros, this has not usually been the case, as Gonzales is 2-6 with a 4.94 ERA in 11 career appearances. On the season, some optimism can be found if you're Seattle, as Gonzales has a 3.86 ERA and is punching out batters roughly nine times per nine innings pitched.
Looking for his second quality start, the Mariners' starting staff has had pitchers on eight different occasions rack up at least five innings tossed, good for fourth in the entire league.
At the dish, Seattle is a scary crew that can put up runs faster than a flash flood submerging the Earth with water. Getting off to a quick start may prove to be critical on Monday, as that is exactly what the Mariners did versus the Marlins yesterday when they put up five of their seven runs in the opening six frames of the ballgame.
Why the Astros Could Cover the Spread
The Astros have had an up and down start to their 2022 campaign, and their overall record certainly shows it. A streaky team that has yet to go on a long, winning tirade or a demoralizing losing skid, Houston needs to show more consistency in many aspects to be able to cover the spread when they face off with their rivals in the Mariners this evening.
On the verge of playing in their tenth game in a row, Houston will end up playing 17 consecutively before finally having a day off, as the key is for Houston to remain focused on the task at hand.
During their busy scheduled slate, Houston is 5-5 with a .231 batting average, a 3.74 ERA, and has outscored their opponents by three runs. While fatigue could end up playing a large part in this contest, the ‘Stros must overcome it by staying patient in their at-bats and forcing Mariners' pitchers to throw more pitches than they would like.
With infielder Jose Altuve officially back and activated for play, Houston will be getting a big boost at the plate. The Astros have been fairly sub par in 2o22 in the hitting department, as they have the 26th best team-batting average at .214. With the bats going ice cold, the pitching performance will have to limit the damage against a destructive Mariners lineup.
Odorizzi doesn't necessarily have the devastating strikeout pitch that he once had, but his ability to get ground ball outs versus a slugging Mariners bunch could be just what the doctor ordered. In his last start, Odorizzi tossed six innings of one-hit baseball while only walking one batter. The 32-year-0ld is 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 14 career starts versus Seattle.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick
This is sure to be an intriguing matchup between two up and down teams, but the Astros should have the edge thanks to the home fans and the energy they should bring into Minute Made on Monday. Houston prevails and wins this one by a few runs.
Final Mariners-Astros Pick: Astros -1.5 (+146)
