The Minnesota Twins were handed awful news on Tuesday morning when they were told that starting pitcher Pablo Lopez could need season-ending UCL surgery. Lopez is one of the top right-handed pitchers in the American League, proving to be a steady hand from 2020 to 2024 with both the Miami Marlins and Twins.
Lopez was traded to the Twins for Luis Arraez a few years back. Since his arrival in Minnesota, Lopez's WAR has risen to a career 15.9. He is six strikeouts shy of 1,000 for his career. In 2023, he K'd up 234 in 194 innings. There is no doubt that the Twins are losing one of the best in the game. Loepz only pitched in 14 games last season, so the Twins played a lot of ball without him.
Not having Lopez in 2026 is going to hurt the Twins. The rotation is decent, led by Joe Ryan. Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Mick Abel are the ones who follow. They also have Zebby Mathews and David Festa, with Kendry Rojas and Connor Prielipp in the minors as top pitching prospects. The depth is there. However, if you combine this rotation with a poor bullpen and a below-average lineup, then it's hard to imagine them being a good team this season.
The Twins have pieces to be good in the future, but they are not in their contending window right now. After losing Lopez, trading either Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, or both could seriously benefit this ballclub 5-6 years from now, when they are closer to contending. It must be noted that the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians aren't going anywhere. The AL Central Division will be dominated by those two teams for the foreseeable future.
The Twins could wait until the trade deadline, but that is a major risk, knowing the value for these two is already very high.
Benefits of trading Joe Ryan
Ryan is under team control through 2027 after avoiding arbitration this offseason. If the Twins don't extend him soon, he could walk in free agency in after two more seasons. You do not want to lose a player with this much talent for nothing. With the extra year of control, that allows the Twins to raise the price on him, and there are teams out there that would trade for him immediately. Ryan is only 29 years of age and is in the middle of his prime seasons.
The Twins could trade him and not even need a big league starter in return, because of the depth that they have right now. Trading him for some prospects would benefit the team later on. Or, they could trade him for a big league starter, plus a prospect, and pick up where they left off last season. The Twins could get a Top 10 pitching prospect in the sport for Ryan if they traded him to the right team.
Benefits of trading Byron Buxton
Buxton does not want to go anywhere. He has shown frustrations with the Twins keeping him on the trade market. However, despite Buxton's loyalty, it's best to move on. He is signed through 2028, but the Twins are not going to be a good team, and at 32 years of age, there won't be many prime seasons left. Buxton is a major threat at the plate, and you'll get a good glimpse of what his 2026 season could look like in a few weeks at the World Baseball Classic.
Once that is over and the start of the season is here, the Twins should seriously consider trading both Ryan and Buxton. If packaged together, the Twins could get some serious prospects in return. James Outman or Austin Martin could slide to center field to replace Buxton, while the Twins have 7-8 guys who could come up and fill the role that Ryan would have produced.
