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The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off of consecutive National League pennants. With a core group of young, emerging stars and wily veterans, the Dodgers have once again stormed out to 15-10 record entering play on Apr. 24. So as the reigning league champions and with (mostly) the same roster intact, they would seem to be the best team in the NL, right? Wrong.
That title now belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals, who swept the Dodgers in a four-game set earlier this month and have won five straight games after completing a sweep of the Brewers on Apr. 24. Aside from having the best winning percentage in the National League, the Redbirds also have the best run differential in the NL (second-best in baseball behind the Tampa Bay Rays).
As of Apr. 24, Cardinals have scored the second-most runs in the NL, while the bullpen has registered the fourth-best ERA in the midst of a struggling starting rotation.
But the scariest part of St. Louis' success is that their stars have yet to really get going.
Room for improvement from the boppers…
The Cardinals knew that they were getting one of the most productive players in baseball when they acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks in December. And thus far, Goldschmidt is already proving to be worth the recent extension that the Cards handed to him prior to the start of the regular season.
In 23 games, Goldschmidt had already hit nine homers and driven in 19 runs. However, he only had two additional extra-base hits, and had struck out in nearly 28 percent of all plate appearances, hitting to the tune of a .269 clip.
This is a player that has not hit below .290 since 2012, while also averaging over 30 homers, 35 doubles and 100 RBIs since 2013. Goldschmidt struck out 173 times last season–by the far the most in his career–and still managed to hit .290 with 30 homers and a .389 OBP. It feels pretty safe to say that the 31-year-old slugger will only continue to find his groove as the summer months come along.
Some of the same can be said for Marcell Ozuna, who has seemed to regain his power stroke (already nine homers and four doubles) but was hitting just .256 and running his highest strikeout rate since 2014.
However, the Cardinals would stand more to gain from a rejuvenated Matt Carpenter. Before defeating the Brewers on Apr. 24, Carpenter was hitting just .230 with three homers, one season removed from mashing 36 homers to the tune of a .523 slugging percentage.
Slow starts are nothing new for Carpenter. He hit a measly .155 in March and April before going on a tear the next three months, hitting over .300 with 24 homers and an OPS well over 1.000. Carpenter also struggled to get things rolling in a down 2017 season. In fact, he has not hit above .240 in April over his last four seasons dating back to 2016.
Thus, Cardinals fans should not worry too much about Carpenter. If anything, they should be more excited by the fact that he is now protected by Goldschmidt in addition to Ozuna and Paul DeJong, who is off to a tremendous start.
…and especially in the rotation
Through 24 games, the Cardinals led the NL in batting average while ranking second in scoring and slugging. On the flip side, St. Louis' starters had a combined 4.97 ERA –ranking 20th in baseball and third-worst in the NL–while ranking 28th in the MLB in starting pitching WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Last year's ace Miles Mikolas has just a 4.7 K/9, and popular breakout Cy Young sleeper candidate Jack Flaherty had given up seven homers in five starts. Dakota Hudson has been downright awful, and Michael Wacha–once again–looks to be battling injuries as he heads to the Injured List.
Still, there have been positives. Adam Wainwright has now thrown three quality starts in his last four appearances, and his FIP suggests that he is actually pitching better than his most recent results.
For his part, Flaherty has still shown the kind of stuff that can make him a dominant ace. In his first five starts, he had registered a 12.0 K/9 and a 1.9 BB/9, suggesting that he too could be trending upwards if he can reestablish his slider as an out pitch.
Carlos Martinez will return from the Injured List as a reliever, but pending better health and early results, he could easily slot back into the rotation and provide the Cardinals with a big lift, especially if it means removing Hudson from the starting staff. Daniel Ponce de Leon is yet another option as a spot starter.
In short, the Cardinals have found ways to win in spite of a staff that has drastically underperformed as compared to last season. And a large reason for that is due to…
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Tremendous relief pitching
Andrew Miller was one of the Cardinals' other marquee additions in the offseason, and yet he has arguably been St. Louis' worst reliever.
Instead, Dominic Leone, John Brebbia, John Gant and Jordan Hicks have anchored the bullpen unit in St. Louis, giving the Redbirds three legitimate power pitchers at the back end of ball games. The Cardinals would certainly benefit from their starters going deeper into the middle innings, but St. Louis has managed to scrap together the wins all the same.
Although the peripherals suggest that each of the aforementioned back-end relievers could see some regression, Miller also stands to potentially see some improvement because of the depth the Cardinals possess. Alex Reyes was optioned to Triple-A after an atrocious start, but he has looked promising since returning to the minors, and could provide added support either in the bullpen or in the rotation.
Furthermore, Martinez offers yet another power pitcher to eat innings and work on his stuff as he slowly works his way back into form.
The bullpen has been effective in getting crucial outs, and for now that is really all that counts for a team with such a high-powered offense.
DeJong, Wong and all the rest
Whereas some of St. Louis' stars continue to battle through the early months, shortstop Paul DeJong and second baseman Kolten Wong have gotten off to torrid starts.
DeJong led the Redbirds in slugging (.632) through the first 24 games while hitting .337 with 11 doubles. His early start is beginning to look a lot more like 2017, when he slugged .532 and hit 25 homers.
The difference this season has been a decrease in strikeouts and an improved contact rate. DeJong is making hard contact on nearly 50 percent of all batted balls, and according to MLB Statcast he has barreled up over 13 percent of balls in play, by far the best mark of his career.
Meanwhile, seeing more balls in the strike zone has benefitted Wong tremendously. Wong had shown some glimpses of his slugging capabilities in the past, but his tendency to chase often made him an easy out in the Cardinals lineup. But Wong's barrel percentage is also up, and he had already drawn over half as many walks this season (16) as he did all of last season (31) entering play on Wednesday.
In Tyler O'Neill's absence, Dexter Fowler has seen a return to form after an atrocious 2018 campaign, and Jose Martinez has been terrific off the bench.
Given early injuries to O'Neill and Harrison Bader, some of the role players on St. Louis have taken it upon themselves to perform at a high level early in the season. This could also give the Cardinals trade leverage should they look to add more pitching at the trade deadline.
Goldschmidt's arrival already seemed to be enough to legitimize the Redbirds as contenders. But with strong performances up and down the roster and room for progression from a starting rotation that was one of the best in baseball last season, the Cardinals look like the best team in the National League.
