Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle and his team had a rocky beginning to last season, just as the Cleveland Cavaliers have faced their own battles in the first half of their 2025-26 campaign. When Cavs reporter Serena Winters posed a question about what signals a group could be better than its record indicates, Carlisle wasted no time with his response.
“If you're asking about Cleveland, I believe that they're setting themselves up to be one of the more dangerous teams in the entire league,” Carlisle said pregame at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday. “There's no way you're gonna match last year's start. It's impossible. I mean, no one's ever won 15 games in a row to start a season. But this year, like most teams, they've dealt with their share of injuries and roster upheaval with that kind of stuff.”
Carlisle's perspective should provide optimism for the 21-17 Cavs, who have not played their most consistent or best brand of basketball to this point. There has been evidence of the identity they've had in the past, especially recently. But there have also been moments where they haven't looked the part of even a playoff team.
Whether people consider it an “excuse” or have a more understanding viewpoint, the reality is that much of it has to do with the inconsistencies of who has been available.
“They certainly haven't been completely healthy all year 'cause [Max] Strus has been out the whole time, but they're a very dangerous team,” Carlisle said.
That has been a common theme of almost every opposing coach and player when they've been asked what's wrong with Cleveland. Hearing it from a championship-winner and head of the reigning Eastern Conference representatives in the NBA Finals should extinguish some of the flames on the outside. Indiana didn't have its most promising first few months that season, losing 15 of its first 25 games.
Then, of course, we all know what happened after the turn of the 2025 new year.
“January is always when schedules always seem to change a little bit, one way or the other,” Carlisle said. “Last year, our schedule it lightened up; we may have had one back-to-back the whole month. This year, we don't have a lot of back-to-backs, but we have a game every other day. Instead of having only 12 games, I think we have 16 this year. So, it's always something. But I think Cleveland's in a very good position.”
Tyrese Haliburton's magical postseason run — accompanied by Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, and much more — led the Pacers to the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years and second time in franchise history. So, there's absolutely hope for this team, and anybody near the playoff picture, really, early in the first month of 2026.
There's Time to Turn It Around for Cleveland
According to Tankathon, the Cavs have the sixth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA with a combined 48.8% opponent winning percentage.
“Where we are right now is to keep perspective, but also have a sense of urgency,” Cleveland head coach Kenny Atkinson said. “It's not like, ‘Hey, everything's gonna be alright.' This is the NBA. Even the really good teams, great teams have gotten out to starts that aren't like what we did last year. But every season's different. This is a different team this year.”
Carlisle added that what will make the Cavs threatening is their younger players getting experience, mentioning Jaylon Tyson, Craig Porter Jr., and Tyrese Proctor. Their veterans, he said, are “very good” players. Schematically, he's a fan of Cleveland doubling down on offensive rebounding as a part of its attack.
“Teams go through ruts all the time,” Jarrett Allen said on December 17. “Sometimes it takes some time to get out of 'em. Like Indiana last year, that's a perfect point of view. They didn't have the best start to the season. Look at us now, we're in the same position sort of… You can see flashes of it. You can see who we are. You can see us on the court having great stretches. So we know who we are.”
Can the Cavs weather the storm and come out on the other side?
This does not guarantee that the Cavs follow the same pattern as Indiana; they could be destined for injuries and misfortune for the rest of the season, and flop. Maybe the team doesn't evolve, and frankly, it's what its loudest detractors say it is. Then, the ever-so-desired trade-machine warriors may have their way and get the pound of flesh they've been craving.
Or, perhaps, they could be looking awfully shortsighted a few months from now.
Consider what Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti said about life in this league, years before his group won the NBA Finals.
“The sky falls on every NBA team at least two times a year,” Presti stated in his 2023 end-of-season press conference. “You will not play well for 82 games. You may play horrible for weeks, maybe a month. You don’t have several months, but every team, the teams that are still playing right now [in the postseason], the sky fell on them this season, and everybody freaked out. The teams that have a sophisticated competitiveness to them understand that while you’re going through that, that’s the solution.
“The regression is, ‘Okay, you have to keep pounding through this and working through it. I think if you have the right principles, the right mentality, and the right temperament, you can work through that and become a better player and a better team as a result of that. There’s going to be lulls. Can you play through the lulls? Can you block out the noise? Can you not become part of the audience? Can you still maintain the perspective of the competitor and not the observer? Because that’s your only solution, is to work through it.”
Forget the record and forget the stats today. If you're knowingly going to evaluate a partially held-together squad, do it with a grain of salt. Sending out 20 different starting lineups in 38 games, it's plain and obvious that the version the wine and gold have been is not who they are at their core; saying otherwise is disingenuous. When the puzzle pieces are in place, Cleveland is balanced and effective, and should be, yes, a contender.
“Our recent stretch of play has been better,” Atkinson said. “Even the Detroit game, we're in it, we're there; we didn't get over the hump with two of our main rotation guys out. So, I feel like we're trending better.
“By no means are we there where we need to be, but we're gonna catch a wave here. I don't want to look ahead at the schedule. It's just like, focus on self-improvement, team improvement, and it'll start [turning]. We'll get a good streak going. That's how I feel about it.”
