INDIANA — With the Indiana Pacers entering Game 4 two wins away from winning the NBA Finals, ESPN's Stephen A Smith made a bold prediction before tip-off. Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers' historic run have the Oklahoma City Thunder with their backs against the ropes, leading the best-of-7 series 2-1 with home-court advantage on their side.

If the Pacers can win their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, they will become the 2025 NBA champions, according to Smith.

“The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the brink of losing the NBA Finals,” Smith said. “If the Indiana Pacers win tonight, they are winning the championship. It's just that simple. Oklahoma City, this is it right here. This game. SGA. That bench. Indiana's bench is outplaying Oklahoma City's bench. 49-18 advantage in Game 3? 120-94 overall in the first three games of this series.

“SGA is being held to 35 percent shooting when Nembhard is guarding him, with Carlisle pushing the pace, wearing cats down, having the Oklahoma City Thunder gasping for air.”

The Pacers' pressure led to a 15-point comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 1, leading to a 110-100 victory in the series opener. After losing Game 2, the Pacers protected home court in Wednesday's matchup and now have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead on Friday. For Stephen A Smith, the Thunder must flip a switch in order to have a chance to win an NBA title.

“What they've been doing. It's not good enough. It's not good enough that you've led after three quarters in every game,” Smith added. “You gotta show up in the fourth quarter. That's when games are won. That's when championships are won, and that's why Indiana is up 2-1 right now because they're the ones playing like they want a championship. Oklahoma City's gotta do the same.”

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Brian Windhorst on critical Thunder-Pacers matchup in Game 4

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots the ball against Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard (2) during the fourth quarter in game three of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

From one ESPN analyst's take to another, Brian Windhorst says Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's matchup is critical against Pacers' Andrew Nembhard. For Windhorst, the winner of that battle will lead their team to victory in Game 4, per ESPN's NBA Today.

“I do, it's the Canadiens. Andrew Nembhard and SGA. This has been an unexpected war between these guys. Look, SGA's numbers are really good, but SGA's standard is very high. Nembhard has given him some problems. First off, he's seven of 20 shooting is exactly in that moment, but Nembhard as a primary defender, seven of 20, that's 35%, that is not how Shai rolls.”

The Pacers will look to grab a 3-1 lead in Game 4 on Friday.