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After the Pacers blowout 108-91 win over the Thunder to force Game 7, Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault put into perspective the problems that his team faced.
“First of all, credit Indiana. I thought they, obviously, earned the win. They outplayed us for most of the 48 minutes, and that’s the story of the game,” Daigneault said. “They went out there and attacked the game. From our standpoint, it was uncharacteristic. It was disappointing, but it was collective. It wasn’t one guy. We were not where we needed to be on both ends of the floor for much of the game, and we have to be a lot better before Game 7.”
Daigneault sees what every NBA fan with a bit of hoops knowledge can see. The Thunder no longer look invincible. For the first time this postseason, they look vulnerable. At times, they don't even look like the better team. It doesn't seem inevitable that the Thunder are going to win this series. It's truly a tossup, the worst position that OKC can be in.
It's a lot of things that didn't work for them both last night and throughout this series. But the biggest flaw that plagued them this first six games, and could prevent them from losing this series outright, is their offense. The Thunder are a tremendous team and they demonstrated it throughout the season. They have an amazing collection of talent with versatility and skill that fits the new era. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's offensive style is reminiscent of the mid-range mastery of the 1990's and 2000's and he's been remarkable for a good portion of this Finals.
What these playoffs have shown, particularly in the series against the Denver Nuggets and the Indiana Pacers, is that while they possess a historic defense, with all five players capable of defending effectively and even the weakest defender holding their own in any rotation, they face significant limitations on the offensive end. Game 1 showcased this perfectly and it seems as if they put a bandaid over the issues instead of fully addressing it.
Following Game 1, I spoke about how the Thunder's offense looked weak and they had to address it to properly take control of the series.
“But I think that the biggest weakness that the Thunder showed last night was that they’re half court offensive attack was stagnant. At times, it seemed as if their offensive attack was solely predicated on giving SGA the ball and ‘letting him cook.' The team took several shots that I believe were ill advised, which didn’t allow them to properly pad their lead to prevent the Pacers from another miraculous postseason comeback.”
It not only seems as if they didn't really make significant adjustments on that front, it almost looks as if they got worse. In Game 6, the Thunder as a team only had 14 assist. None of the Oklahoma City starters even got over two assist in the game and Alexander only had two assists himself. Even in their miraculous Game 4 victory they only had 11 assists and Alexander finished the game with no assists.
As we enter Game 7, the offense still is “let SGA cook” and that game plan simply isn't going to work against a Rick Carlisle coached team. Carlisle and his coaching staff watched the film and they, in concert with Tyrese Haliburton, worked to limit their turnovers and take away one of the Thunder's biggest strengths: their transition offense.
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We know that the Thunder thrive off of forcing turnovers, getting deflected passes and Chet Holmgren blocking shots to ignite their transition attack. The Pacers only had 11 turnovers and the Thunder only had four steals and four blocks on Thursday night. This means that more often than not, the Thunder have had to operate in the half-court.
Their half-court offense is atrocious at times. We see barely any ball movement and the offense grinds to a halt often when SGA has the ball in his hands. Alexander has missed several easy passing reads this series, which cannot happen when you are the best player on a contender and the defense is specifically scheming to stop you.
The Thunder generate plenty of offense from fast breaks, but when it comes to setting up in half-court situations, they seem to struggle. For a team historically known for its dominance and defensive identity, this lack of creativity on offense is their Achilles' heel. Their inability to adapt offensively could ultimately lead to their downfall in this NBA Finals, despite being the clear favorites.
To win the first NBA Finals Game 7 since the Cavaliers historic victory over the Warriors in 2016, Mark Daigneault has to get inventive with his offensive play-calling. They're going to have to find a way to get the Pacers defense off-kilter and find out some way to unlock Holmgren, who had 9 points in Game 5 and 4 points in Game 6. You have to feed the big man!
And, SGA has to finish Sunday night with at least five assists. His stat line at the end of Game 7 can't be zero or two assists. He needs to tap into the level of play that he had in Game 5 where he had 31 points and 10 assists. The Pacers are going to throw the kitchen sink at him and if the offense stalls out when the ball hits his hands, it might be time to prepare the Larry O'Brien trophy and champagne for the Pacers.
I believe the Thunder can win this series and I picked the Thunder to win in this series in six. Clearly, I was a bit off on my predictions since it's going seven games! But, a limited offensive attack against a Pacers defense that is clearly adapted from game one to game seven is how they'll waste a historically dominant season.
