Championship week is in full swing! So far, with just a few days to go until Selection Sunday, the top teams have started off championship week strong. The bubble, on the other hand, has not, and that is reflected in this Bracketology.
Virginia Tech, Stanford and Texas all dropped their first game of championship week, making their NCAA Tournament standing even shakier than it was when the regular season ended. SMU and Auburn both held serve, winning one game before losing to a stronger opponent in the second round.
The first wrench of the week got thrown into things on Thursday when previously-undefeated Miami (OH) suffered its first loss of the season against UMass in the MAC quarterfinals. The RedHawks now have a bit of an interesting bubble case at 31-1 but with no real quality wins outside of a home win over Akron.
Do Travis Steele and company still have enough on their resume to get into the dance? Let's check out where things stand with three days to go.
Bold = Automatic Qualifier
*= Clinched Automatic Bid
Note – With conference tournaments in progress, the automatic bid will be awarded to the highest remaining seed in each conference tournament as of the morning of Friday, March 13.
East Region
1. Duke
16. UMBC/Florida A&M
8. UCLA
9. TCU
5. Vanderbilt
12. McNeese*
4. Kansas
13. Sam Houston State
6. BYU
11. South Florida
3. Gonzaga*
14. Wright State*
7. Saint Mary's
10. NC State
2. UConn
15. Idaho*
Midwest Region
1. Michigan
16. Queens*
8. Utah State
9. Saint Louis
5. St. John's
12. Northern Iowa*
4. Virginia
13. Hofstra*
6. Tennessee
11. UCF/SMU
3. Iowa State
14. North Dakota State*
7. Miami (FL)
10. Texas A&M
2. Michigan State
15. Furman*
West Region
1. Arizona
16. Lehigh*
8. Georgia
9. Iowa
5. Arkansas
12. Yale
4. Purdue
13. High Point*
6. Louisville
11. Texas/VCU
3. Alabama
14. Troy*
7. Kentucky
10. Santa Clara
2. Illinois
15. Siena*
South Region
1. Florida
16. Howard/Long Island*
8. Villanova
9. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
12. Akron
4. Texas Tech
13. Utah Valley
6. North Carolina
11. Missouri
3. Nebraska
14. UC Irvine
7. Clemson
10. Miami (OH)
2. Houston
15. Tennessee State*
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: NC State, Texas A&M, Miami (OH), Missouri
Last Four In: UCF, Texas, VCU, SMU
First Four Out: Auburn, Oklahoma, Indiana, New Mexico
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Cincinnati, Stanford, Seton Hall
Multi-bid leagues
SEC – 10
Big Ten – 9
ACC – 8
Big 12 – 8
Big East – 3
WCC – 3
Atlantic 10 – 2
MAC – 2
Bid-stealers to keep an eye out for
Atlantic 10
Most likely bid-stealers: VCU, George Mason, St. Joe's
Saint Louis has been mostly rolling through the A-10 this season, and the Billikens are looking at a No. 8 or 9 seed regardless of what happens in their conference tournament. However, they are not playing quite as well as they were earlier in the season and are coming off of a 29-point loss on the road against George Mason.
VCU is the second-best team in the conference, and the Rams are currently in our “Last Four In” heading into championship week. However, George Mason and a red-hot St. Joe's team could also play spoiler for the bubble.
The Billikens will get going on Friday in the quarterfinals against George Washington, while VCU will start its A-10 title chase off against Duquesne.
Mountain West
Most likely bid-stealers: New Mexico, San Diego State, Nevada
The Mountain West isn't nearly as strong as it has been in past years, and both San Diego State and New Mexico have been playing their way out of the tournament in recent weeks. However, both the Lobos and the Aztecs will fancy their chances to knock off a very good, but not invincible, Utah State team on a neutral court and secure an automatic bid.
Utah State will host a hot Nevada team in the semifinals on Friday. Then, San Diego State takes on New Mexico in a battle of two bubble teams. Only one will leave with a chance to fight for a tournament bid on Saturday.
MAC
Most likely bid-stealer: Akron
There will very likely be a bid stealer out of the MAC after Miami (OH)'s perfect season went up in smoke on Thursday. The bubble groaned as the final buzzer sounded on UMass' upset of the RedHawks in the MAC quarterfinals, opening up the possibility of a two-bid MAC.
Miami should still be in the field thanks to a very weak bubble. For now, Travis Steele's squad still sits firmly in the “Last Four Byes” section, above teams that have already lost this week such as Missouri, UCF, Texas and SMU.
UMass will now play Toledo in the first semifinal on Friday before Akron takes on Kent State in the second semifinal. The Zips are the overwhelming favorite to win the conference and would be a dangerous No. 12 seed if they can get it done.
Biggest storylines to watch
Miami (OH) now enters the bubble with one of the most fascinating resumes in the history of at-large teams. The RedHawks' predictive metrics are still just inside the top 100, but the Quad 3 loss to UMass drops them to 64th in the NET rankings and down to 37 in Wins Above Bubble. That final number is still a strong one, and it keeps Miami in the field just above the First Four for now.
Some teams on the middle seed lines have great chances on Friday to improve their standing with wins over top teams. Kentucky gets another crack at Florida, Miami (FL) is still alive in the ACC, Wisconsin will get a crack at Illinois and Clemson will take on a Duke team that looked awfully vulnerable on Thursday night without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II.
The bubble is having a last-man-standing kind of week, and there are only a few teams left. VCU is in a strong position and can cement that even further on Friday as a heavy favorite against Duquesne. New Mexico and San Diego State will play a loser-leaves-town game late on Friday night in the Mountain West semifinals, with the winner getting a shot at the auto-bid on Saturday. Seton Hall, barely alive, needs a win against St. John's to stay in the conversation.
The team to watch is Oklahoma, as Porter Moser has his team playing some of the best basketball in the SEC late in the season. The Sooners, who once lost nine games in a row this season, have now won their last six and eight of their last 10 games in SEC play including wins over tournament teams in Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, Texas and a blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday night. With this run, Oklahoma has soared into the First Four Out and can sneak into the field with an upset of Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals.
