Championship week represents the final chance for teams on the bubble to make an impression on the selection committee before Selection Sunday. Each year, some bubble teams fall by the wayside while others rise up with deep runs and big wins over top teams.
This year, most of the bubble has floundered to start championship week, which is a microcosm of how it has performed for most of the season. Indiana, Texas, Stanford and Virginia Tech are all among bubble teams that lost their first game of the week, but SMU avoided a similar fate. The Mustangs got their ACC Tournament campaign underway with a convincing win against Syracuse.
Andy Enfield and company couldn't quite keep that momentum going on Wednesday in the second round, losing a tight defensive battle against Louisville 62-58. Of course, the Cardinals are safely in the NCAA Tournament, so this loss won't hurt SMU's chances of making the March Madness field. However, it does open the door for bid stealers and other bubble teams to push the Mustangs out of the field.
How likely is that to happen? Let's look at SMU's chances of getting into the field on Sunday after a late-season slide.
The bubble is helping SMU out
SMU holding serve, so to speak, in the ACC Tournament this week has to be seen as a win when compared to the rest of the bubble. The Mustangs took care of business against a potential landmine in Syracuse before falling as an underdog to a tournament team in Louisville.
The rest of the bubble around the country wasn't as fortunate. Virginia Tech and Stanford both took losses around SMU in the first round of the ACC Tournament, dropping them down the bubble. California also took an early loss along with Texas in the SEC and Indiana in the Big Ten, which helps SMU's chances.
The teams that didn't fall to inferior teams early in their conference tournaments failed to make an impression on the selection committee as well. NC State, Missouri, UCF, Auburn and others all faltered when they got a chance to knock off an NCAA Tournament team just like SMU did, so the Mustangs didn't lose much ground on the bubble.
The one wrench that got thrown into things was Miami (OH) losing in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament, meaning that there will be at least one bid-stealer coming out of the MAC. The Mountain West and the Atlantic 10 could be spots for other bid-stealers, which could be what knocks SMU out of the field.
Examining SMU's resume
SMU has a solid resume at the moment, even after its last loss to Louisville. The Mustangs are sitting solidly at 37th in the NET rankings with no bad losses, as Andy Enfield and company are 11-0 against the bottom two quadrants.
Against the top two quadrants, SMU has a number of quality wins as well. It is 5-4 in Quad 2 games and 4-9 in Quad 1 games. Among those Quad 1 wins are home wins against North Carolina and Louisville, which gives Enfield and company two wins over teams solidly in the NCAA Tournament. SMU also has a win over Texas A&M on a neutral floor in non-conference play.
The predictive metrics haven't been as kind to SMU, but they still aren't in a terrible spot. The Mustangs are currently 42nd in KenPom and 43rd in Torvik, on par with some of the other bubble teams around them. Teams like Oklahoma, Auburn, and NC State are ranked above SMU in those numbers, while others such as VCU and San Diego State are below it. Overall, those numbers shouldn't have a strong skew on whether SMU makes the tournament or not.
In general, the problem that SMU might run into is the general volume of losses in an ACC that is not as deep as the SEC or the Big 12. Among SMU's Quad 2 losses, there are defeats against pretty bad teams in Syracuse and LSU.
Those losses show up in SMU's Wins Above Bubble metric, one of the most popular metrics for the selection committee in past seasons. After SMU's loss on Wednesday, it is currently 45th in WAB, with a number barely above zero. That is better than Texas, Indiana and the Mountain West bubble teams, but worse than teams like VCU and Auburn.
All in all, it's going to be a close call for SMU on Selection Sunday. The Mustangs should be big Utah State fans and big Saint Louis fans over the weekend, as any more bid-stealers could send the Mustangs to the NIT.
