Rick Pitino turned St. John's around quickly. They won the Big East regular season and tournament for the first time since 1985-86, while making the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018-19. Pitino recently took his 900th win on the court and is now looking to win his first national championship since 2012-13. Despite all these positive developments, St. John's is a pretender in 2026.
The Red Storm are 16-5 on the season and 9-1 in conference play. Still, many of their losses were earlier in the season, against solid teams, and most of them at neutral sites. They lost to Alabama at home in early November, and then lost to both Iowa State and Auburn at the Players Era Festival in Vegas. The lone loss in conference play came back on January 3, a 77-71 loss to Providence at home. Since then, they have won seven straight.
Regardless, St. John's may not have what it takes to make the run, with some glaring issues and a tough path to winning it all.
Play on the glass will be an issue
St. John's head coach Pitino has pointed out in the past that rebounding has been an issue. Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell have been solid on the glass this year. Ejiofor is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game while Mitchell has seven per game this year. Still, there is not a lot of help outside of those two, and rebounding has been a major issue for their guards. Only Ozijyah Sellers has more than three rebounds per game.
St. John's is 39th in rebounds per game this year, but is also 139th in opponent rebounds per game. The major issue has been the defensive glass. St. John's is 17th in Division I at offensive rebounding rate, but 144th in defensive rebounding rate. The team has struggled on the defensive end of the court, not giving up second chances to opponents. In their five losses this year, St. John's has been outrebounded in four of them.
The only time they won the rebounding battle was against Providence, but that was due to offensive rebounds. St. John's won the battle 51-44 with the help of 25 offensive rebounds. Meanwheil, Providence had 29 defensive rebounds compared to the 26 of the Red Storm. If St. John's cannot control the rebounding game, they will not make a run in the NCAA tournament.
St. John's defense will not deliver them a title
While St. John's is ranked 21st in defensive rating according to KenPom, which is good enough to make a run, many underlying metrics show that the defense is not good enough to make a run. Part of the defensive issues comes with the tempo at which the Red Storm plays. They are 58th in the nation in adjusted tempo this year. This leads to plenty of shot attempts for other teams. The defense gives up 60.1 field goal attempts per game, which is 266th in the nation.
The tempo also leads to points for opponents. St. John's gives up 72.5 points per game, which is 118th nationally. They also do a solid job with blocks and steals. The team is 16th in blocks per game and 53rd in steals per game. Regardless, there are a couple of major issues for the defense. First, they get into foul trouble. St. John's is 195th in the nation in fouls per game and 144th in opponent free throw attempts per game. They give up nearly 15 points per game from the free-throw line, which will be a major difference in a tight game in March.
Adding to that, they have not been good against the three. Teams do not get a lotof three pints attempts off, sitting 68th in opponent attempts, but 159th in opponent three-point percentage. If a team can get into a rhythm from beyond the arc, St. John's will have a lot of trouble keeping up. Finally, the Red Storm struggles to close out games. They are 126th in opponent second-half points. They have had halftime leads in four of their five losses, and were outscored by ten or more points in four of the five games in the second half. If they cannot finish games strongly, it will be a short run for St. John's
The Red Storm's history is not on their side
Rick Pitino is a legendary and Hall of Fame coach. Still, it has been a long time since Pitino coached in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. In the last five seasons, the coach has led both Iona and St. John's to the tournament, making it with Iona in 2020-21 and 2022-23, plus bringing St. John's to the dance in 2024-25. Still, the St. John's berth is the only one in which he advanced out of the round of 64, losing in the round of 32. The last time a Rick Pitino team played in the second weekend was in 2014-15 when Louisville played in the Elite Eight. Moreover, the last time a Pitino-coached team played in the second weekend and did not have their run vacated was in 2008-09 with Louisville.
While it has been over a decade since Pitino even coached in the Sweet 16, it has been even longer for St. John's. The Red Storm made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999-00. The last time they advanced beyond the second-round was an Elite Eight run in 1998-99.
Adding to the potential mess for St. John's could be their seeding. St. John's is currently slated to be a six-seed in the NCAA tournament. Since 2011, a six seed has been upset by an 11 seed 29 times, and in every single tournament. Further, since the NCAA tournament added a First Four format, one of those teams, often as an 11-seed, has made upsets. Since the change in format in 2011, a team that played in the First Four has won in the first round in 12 of 14 seasons.
Even if the Red Storm jumps up to a five seed, they will still be on upset alert. Five seeds have upset 12 seeds in 12 of the last 14 tournaments as well. Recent history all sets up for a major disappointment for St. John's. Add in the trouble they have on the glass and on defense, and this team is primed for an early exit.
