Indiana is a historically bad football program. The school has a record of 514-517-46 all-time, and has never won a national championship. Now, they have a chance to make school history by defeating Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday night.
Indiana has been nothing short of dominant this season. They are 15-0, the only undefeated team in the nation. It was a 12-0 regular season, scoring 50 or more points six times during the season. Further, they allowed over 15 points just twice during the regular season. They won ten of their 12 regular-season games by ten or more points. The Hooisers extended their dominance into the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State. While the game ended 13-10, Indiana did not give up a point in the second half to the high-powered Ohio State offense.
The playoffs have been more of the game. In the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl, the Indiana offense was clicking on all cylinders, as wasthe defense. They defeated Alabama 38-3. Then, in the CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl against Oregon, Indiana flexed their muscle once again. Indiana opened the game with a pick-six of Dante Moore just 11 seconds into the game. Oregon would tie the game, but Omar Cooper brought in a pass from Fernando Mendoza to make it 14-7 at the end of the first quarter. Indiana then scored 21 points in the second quarter to lead 35-7 at the end of the first half. The Hoisers would go on to add another 21 points, while forcing three turnovers in the game. Indiana punched their ticket to the national championship with a 56-22 win over Oregon.
Miami has been solid in its own right. They are 13-2 on the season, after a 10-2 regular season. Miami did not play for the ACC Championship, despite being 10-2 and tied for second. The Canes missed out based on a five-way tiebreaker to Duke. Regardless, the team made the playoffs, but as the number ten seed. They would dominate on defense for the first two rounds, allowing just 17 total points in wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State. The offense would take the stage in the CFP semifinal against Ole Miss, winning the game 31-27. As they look to stall Indiana's historical run, it is time to make three bold predictions about the Hooisers in this game.
Miami struggles to slow down the run of Indiana
The Miami defense has been great this year. They are fifth in opponent points per game while sitting 11th in opponent yards per game. They are fifth against the run while sitting 50th against the pass. While the defense has been stellar, they will struggle with the run game of Indiana in this one. The Hooisers are third in points per game while sitting 16th in yards per game. They are also 11th in the run and 60th in the pass. The Hooisers have a stellar backfield with Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
Hemby has led the backfield this year, coming into the game with 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns. Further, he has run for 194 in the last three games with a touchdown. Black has run for 961 yards this year, and then scores. He has been on fire as of late, running for 231 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. Further, he has been the big-play threat in the run game, with at least one run of 20 or more yards in each of the last three games.
If Miami can bottle up Hemby and Black, they have to deal with Mendoza. Let alone the fact that Mendoza had more touchdowns than incompletions last time out, he is great on the ground. He has run for 284 yards and six scores this year. Between Hemby, Black, and Mendoza, the trio will run for over 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Carson Beck is tormented by the Indiana defense
The Indiana defense is second in the nation in opponent points per game and fourth in opponent yards per game. They are third against the run and 26th against the pass. Miami has shown they will give away the ball, and Indiana showed last week they can force turnovers. They are eighth in the nation in interception rate.
Carson Beck showed earlier this year that he can throw backbreaking interceptions, including a game-sealing pick against Louisville. Beck has thrown 11 interceptions this year, with six of those coming in the two losses. Further, he threw one against Ole Miss last time out, which nearly cost them the game. Indiana has Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones, who will be putting constant pressure on Beck in this game. Hardy had eight sacks while Jones had seven.
With that pressure, Beck is going to have to make quick passes, which is going to lead to some ill-advised passes. That is when Louis Moore or Amare Ferrell will take over. Moore has six interceptions to go with his two pass breakups this year. Ferrell has six pass breakups and four picks. Against Oregon, it was D'Angelo Ponds who had the pick-six. In the National Championship, it may not be an interception returned for a touchdown, but the interception is coming, and Moore or Ferrell will have it.
The Hooisers are champs… and it's not even close
Indiana has not just covered games as of late; they have dominated. They have won by 30 or more points in three of their last four games. Further, they have won by 30 or more eight times this year. On average, Indiana has covered the spread by 22.4 points per game in its last four games. The only game they did not cover by more than three scores was when they were 3.5-point underdogs to Ohio State, and won the game by three, covering by 6.5 points.
Miami has also covered the spread in each of the last four games, but the largest margin they have covered by is 24.5 points. That was also the largest margin of the season for the Canes. Miami showed vulnerability against Ole Miss. They had multiple chances to put away Ole Miss earlier in the game, and nearly gave up the game. Between a missed field goal and multiple dropped interceptions, they could have had complete control over the Rebels. Further, the Rebels struggled on defense in the second half.
On the first drive of the second half, Ole Miss missed a field goal. They would hit field goals on each of their next two drives, and then score a touchdown on a six play 75 yards drive to take the lead. The offense bailed the defense out, but there was a clear vulnerability.
Indiana has not shown an ounce of vulnerability; instead have put their foot on the necks of opponents. Odds at the time of writing, provided by DraftKings, have Indiana as an 8.5-point favorite. Miami is not only going to cover that spread, but also cover it by more than a touchdown in a victory of at least 16 points.
