One of the marquee matchups of Week 6 in college football will feature the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) traveling to Tallahassee to face their bitter rival in the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles (3-1). It will be the 69th meeting between the two ACC powers, with the Hurricanes holding a narrow 36-33 advantage in the all-time series.
Miami snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry last season with a 36-14 win at Hard Rock Stadium in front of a home crowd. However, the Hurricanes have struggled at Doak Campbell Stadium in recent years. Their last road victory in the series came back in 2019.
This year’s matchup just missed becoming the first top-10 clash between the two programs since 2013. Miami enters fresh off a bye in Week 5, while Florida State played Friday night and suffered an upset loss to Virginia in Charlottesville, dropping the Seminoles 10 spots in the AP poll.
Even with the blemish, this remains a massive game for Florida State — as it always is. The stakes are high, with both ACC title and College Football Playoff implications on the line. The Seminoles will be eager to rebound and would love nothing more than to spoil Miami’s perfect season.
Miami rushes for at least 170 yards
If there’s one thing Miami is going to do offensively, it’s run the football. The Hurricanes are averaging 180.5 yards per game through four contests. That number ranks only 51st nationally, but it has come against quality competition in Notre Dame, Florida and South Florida.
Miami is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has a deep stable of backs, including Jordan Lyle, who is expected to return against Florida State after being sidelined since the opener against Notre Dame. Lyle is widely considered the best back on Miami’s roster.
In his absence, the Hurricanes have held up just fine with Mark Fletcher and transfer Marty Brown handling the workload. Brown, in particular, has been impressive as a bruising runner who consistently churns out extra yardage.
What makes Miami’s ground game especially intriguing this week is what Virginia did against Florida State in Week 5. The Seminoles’ defensive line was pushed around by the Cavaliers’ front, allowing a season-high 211 rushing yards. Miami’s coaching staff surely took note, especially given how dominant its offensive line has been at the point of attack so far this season.
Carson Beck protects the ball
The concern about Carson Beck when he transferred from Georgia was how he would respond when things didn’t go his way. With the Bulldogs, Beck was often seen looking disengaged on the sideline when plays went wrong, and his season was marked by inconsistency. He also doubled his interception total from six to 12.
Now, Miami fans may be seeing some of those same issues creep back in. Over his last two games, Beck has thrown three interceptions after avoiding turnovers in his previous two. Against Florida, he posted a season-low 160 passing yards. Then again, Beck also recognized what was working.
“We’re pushing them around up front. Let’s just grind it out,” Beck told offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, according to ESPN’s Andrea Adelson.
Should Hurricanes fans be worried? Maybe. Especially with Miami heading into one of the most hostile environments they’ll face all year — against their bitter rival, no less. The good news is Beck has played in plenty of high-pressure situations before and found ways to survive. He’ll have to make some plays in this one, but he’ll be supported by a backfield more than capable of controlling the game.
Rueben Bain Jr. doesn't record a sack
Rueben Bain Jr. has been so dominant this season that he’s now being mentioned as a potential Heisman Trophy candidate. According to Pro Football Focus, Bain currently grades out as the nation’s top edge defender at 95.8. Through four games, he has recorded 22 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, one interception and one forced fumble.
He sits just behind team leader Akheem Mesidor, who has 2.5 sacks. But Bain’s impact goes beyond his own numbers — he creates opportunities for teammates like Mesidor to make plays, and that will be the case again Saturday against Florida State.
At this point, there’s really no good game plan for blocking Bain. The Seminoles will likely try to double-team him as much as possible, while quarterback Thomas Castellanos uses his speed to escape pressure. Even so, the Hurricanes’ defense should still be able to create disruption behind the line of scrimmage. It just may not always be Bain delivering the blow.
Miami makes it two straight over Florida State
Miami hasn’t beaten Florida State in back-to-back meetings since 2019 and 2020, when the Hurricanes strung together four straight wins in the rivalry. Last season, facing a Seminoles team that managed only two victories, Miami took care of business with ease — even without a Cam Ward passing touchdown, though he did haul in a reception for a score.
Now the Hurricanes head back on the road to a place where they’ve historically found success.
This matchup could become another classic with major implications for both programs. For Mario Cristobal, it’s a must-win opportunity as Miami continues its pursuit of the program’s first ACC championship. In the end, expect the Hurricanes to escape with another narrow victory.
