Just one Saturday is left to pass before Selection Sunday in college football, when the 12-team College Football Playoff field is officially finalized. Only the conference championship games still have to be played, but the biggest debate of this CFP season is between two teams that will be on the couch of the final weekend before the bracket is released.
Miami and Notre Dame have been linked ever since their classic Week 1 encounter, and now both sit at 10-2. The Irish lost their first two games of the season, one against the Hurricanes and another against Texas A&M, but have won 10 games in a row since. On the other hand, Miami dropped a pair of games in conference play against solid teams in SMU and Louisville.
The way the rankings have fallen, Notre Dame and Miami have gotten closer and closer to each other each week. Both have the same record, and the 10th-ranked Irish are clinging to the final at-large spot and the 12th-ranked Hurricanes are two spots out of the field heading into championship weekend.
Of course, this all hinges on No. 11 BYU losing the Big 12 Championship Game against No. 4 Texas Tech on Saturday. If BYU wins, it will slide in and both Notre Dame and Miami will slide out. However, assuming Alabama won't drop from No. 9 with a loss and BYU loses, only one of Notre Dame and Miami can get the final spot. Who should it be?
The case for Notre Dame
The selection committee has repeatedly cited the “eye test” when ranking Notre Dame, even slotting the Irish above Alabama in recent weeks despite the Tide's deep reserve of quality wins that Notre Dame doesn't have. Alabama's move up to No. 9 over Notre Dame — despite the bizarre reasoning the committee gave, was a correction that was weeks in the making.
Marcus Freeman's squad has won 10 games in a row and is in the top five in most power ratings and efficiency metrics. At this point in the season, this is clearly one of the best teams in the country.
Notre Dame also has some context to explain its two losses. The Miami loss came in the first game of the season with a freshman quarterback in CJ Carr making his first start on the road, and it came by just a field goal. A week later, Notre Dame lost a home game to Texas A&M, which is safely in the CFP at 11-1, in large part because of a missed extra point.
The actual resume can be picked apart; Notre Dame is just 13th in ESPN's Strength of Record and 42nd in Strength of Schedule. Notre Dame's best win came against a three-loss USC team, but it's clear that the tape shows a playoff-caliber team week in and week out.
The case for Miami
Miami's exclusion from the ACC Championship Game, in favor of 7-5 Duke, no less, will likely lead to a change in the conference tiebreaker system moving forward. However, that life raft isn't coming this year, and the Hurricanes blew two chances to play for the conference title against SMU and Louisville.
However, those two losses are being underrated. Are they the kind of quality losses that Notre Dame has? No, but the Mustangs and Cardinals are not bad teams by any stretch of the imagination.
Miami's offensive inconsistency has been cited by the committee on multiple occasions for its relatively low ranking, but Carson Beck is starting to play his best ball and Mario Cristobal's program put together arguably its best performance of the season in a 38-7 road win over Pitt to close the regular season.
Miami is 14th in Strength of Record and 44th in Strength of Schedule, neck-and-neck with Notre Dame in both departments. Its advantage over the Irish comes with its best win, which is over none other than Notre Dame itself.
Who should get in?
These are clearly both playoff-caliber teams who are being boxed out by a very strong bubble, especially compared to the crop of three-loss SEC teams of a year ago.
Quite frankly, it would be a shame if this Notre Dame team on a 10-game winning streak didn't get a chance to compete for a title. The Irish are really good, arguably a top three-level team in my opinion. If you put Notre Dame and Miami on a neutral field tomorrow, I would pick Notre Dame to win, and I think many others would agree with me.
But that's just what I think, and what I think doesn't matter. The committee will be splitting hairs when separating these two teams, and that leaves only one right way to go.
Notre Dame and Miami played a football game this season. The final score read Miami 27, Notre Dame 24.
Overlooking that result between two teams so closely-ranked at the end to the year would be malpractice in a sport that plays just 12 regular season games. Head-to-head is already being honored in many other places in the current ranking; Oklahoma is a spot above Alabama and Texas is above Vanderbilt, among others.
The truth is, Notre Dame and Miami played a playoff game back in August. We just didn't know it yet. That's why college football has the best regular season in sports.
Now we're here, digging through film and data, when the answer was on the scoreboard back in August. No matter what you think of Notre Dame now, there's only one spot left.
Miami won on the field, it shouldn't have to beat the Irish in a conference room as well to prove its point. The U belongs in that last playoff spot.
