The College Football Playoff committee released their first rankings for the College Football Playoff on Tuesday. These rankings are hardly ever sticky. Every year, someone outside of the top four finds their way into the playoff despite the odds for that particular team making it seeming minuscule. It always happens, so one should be surprised when it happens again.
Now that the rankings are out, however, it is fun to go through and parse those rankings out. That's largely the purpose for these rankings right now; the playoff doesn't start until late December anyway. There is still a month of the regular season to go, and lot of things will happen between now and then.
With that being said, why not look at the rankings to try to find teams that maybe the committee has a little too much faith in. Three teams in particular stand out as teams that the College Football Playoff Committee may have overrated.
Michigan Wolverines (No. 3)
The committee ranked the Michigan Wolverines third in their initial College Football Playoff rankings. Looking at data, Michigan sure seems like one of the three best teams in the country, just like the committee has it. Michigan's defense has allowed the fewest yards per game (226.8) and points per game (5.9) in the country. Their offense, while far from perfect, does rank sixth in the country in points per game as well (40.6).
So, why would they be overrated?
They might not be! But if one were to make the case, one reason could be their schedule. Michigan hasn't beaten anybody worth a darn so far this season. Michigan hasn't played anybody that was ranked in the committee's initial top 25 College Football Playoff rankings.
Their best win on the season has been. .. Rutgers? Outside of the Scarlet Knights, who are 6-2 on the season, the Big Ten opponents Michigan has played and beaten have been Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, and Michigan State. Those four teams are a combined 14-18 on the season. Granted, Michigan has blown all of those teams out, but that isn't a murderers' row by any stretch.
Also, there is just a lot going on with the Michigan program right now. Before the season, head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for the first three games for recruiting violations. Now, the program is involved with an elaborate sign-stealing scandal that is too convoluted to point out here.
Michigan doesn't have a signature win yet. Teams like Oregon, Washington, and Florida State do without this extra baggage. They should be ranked ahead of Michigan in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Ole Miss Rebels (No. 10)
Much like Michigan, what exactly is Ole Miss' signature win? The Rebels do have two wins over teams ranked in the initial College Football Playoff rankings in Tulane and LSU. But neither win looked as good on the film as it does on paper.
That's fine; Ole Miss shouldn't apologize for winning the games on their schedule. And both of those teams are good! LSU has one of the best offenses in the entire country! Tulane might be the best non-Power Five team in the country! They're good!
However, Tulane was down their starting quarterback in Michael Pratt, who is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and a late fumble touchdown made that game look a little more lopsided than it actually was. The Rebels were losing by nine points at home with eight minutes to go in their shootout win over LSU. Bad teams like Auburn and Arkansas hung around the Rebels in their next couple of games.
Ole Miss is a very good team, but they might not be the 10th-best team in the country and shouldn't be there in the College Football Playoff rankings.
UCLA Bruins (No. 19)
UCLA also doesn't exactly have a signature win on their ledger this season. They don't have a win in two tries against teams ranked in the top 25 in Utah and Oregon State.
Freshman phenom Dante Moore has struggled mightily in conference play and has seemingly been benched. His future is very bright, but he looked a bit overwhelmed in conference play.
While UCLA could easily finish undefeated the rest of the way, this team just isn't that good and is clearly overrated in the College Football Playoff rankings.