Conference championship weekend is here in college football, and College Football Playoff implications are on the line all over the country. That won't necessarily be the case in Indianapolis, but the Big Ten Championship may still be the best game of the day.
Of course, both No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana will be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the result on Saturday, but both are likely locked into their seed as the only two undefeated teams in the FBS entering championship weekend. At worst, the loser of the game may drop to No. 3 if Georgia wins the SEC Championship, but that won't have much effect on the CFP bracket.
Indiana and Ohio State have been the two most consistent teams in college football all season, so this will be a heavyweight clash between two teams that didn't match up in the regular season in the Big Ten this year.
Indiana lost a lot from last year's CFP team, but Curt Cignetti has rebuilt his roster around Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. When Mendoza arrived this offseason, he was a raw prospect with a good frame and a solid arm. Now, he's a Heisman trophy candidate and a potential No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft next spring.
Mendoza has played a couple of talented defenses this season in wins over Oregon and Penn State, but he hasn't seen anything like this Ohio State defense. There is nothing like this Buckeyes defense anywhere in college football, even after losing most of its starting lineup from last season's national title-winning team.
Mendoza has been operating at a high level all season, but he could be in trouble on Saturday night. Here's why.
Ohio State has the most versatile defense in college football
This Ohio State defense has incredible versatility at all three levels, which allows it to morph into whatever is needed of it on a given week. Matt Patricia is in his first season as defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes, but his decades of NFL experience have allowed him to implement a lot of those pro schemes into what is essentially an NFL defense.
Indiana has the best offense of anybody Ohio State has played this season by a wide margin, especially when you take into account the state that Texas was in back in Week 1. However, none of those opponents have been able to even think about moving the ball consistently against the Buckeyes, even if it isn't a murderer's row of units.
The versatility starts with two players, both of whom will not have to wait long to hear their names called in the NFL Draft this spring. Safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country and spends a lot of time down in the box, but he can cover as a deep safety when asked to. When he does step down closer to the line of scrimmage, he is essentially a linebacker against the run and a cornerback in coverage, giving Patricia the best Swiss Army Knife in the country to deploy.
Linebacker Arvell Reese has also burst onto the scene as one of the best players in America as an off-ball linebacker that can walk down onto the edge and be an elite, twitchy pass-rusher.
Indiana will likely keep Ohio State in nickel personnel for most of the game on Saturday, but Patricia can still change up his looks even when he's locked into similar personnel groupings. Reese can play a traditional off-ball position in a regular nickel set, or he can walk down and play on the end of a 5-man penny front with one linebacker (usually Sonny Styles), which the Buckeyes could use either to help out against the run or to create one-on-ones in pass protection.
That ability to dictate formation and personnel is what makes this Ohio State defense so hard to beat and will matter on Saturday.
Can Indiana run the ball and keep Mendoza out of obvious passing downs?
Mendoza has gotten a lot of love this season, and rightfully so, but the Hoosiers make their hay on the ground. Cignetti and company have the ninth-best rushing attack in college football, gaining nearly 230 yards per game on the ground.
Ohio State has been impossible to run (and pass) on this season, as the Buckeyes rank fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed with just over 81 per game. This Indiana attack is the best rushing attack they have faced this year, but a strong Michigan ground game was also helpless against Ohio State just a week ago.
If Indiana can't get things going on the ground, history points to Indiana having a tough day on offense overall. Two of Mendoza's most difficult games this season came against the best defenses on the schedule — Oregon and Penn State — and the rushing attack was absent in both games.
Oct. 11 vs. Oregon (W 30-20)
Indiana: 111 rushing yards on 37 carries
Mendoza: 20-for-31, 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Nov. 8 at Penn State (W 27-24)
Indiana: 108 rushing yards on 31 carries
Mendoza: 19-for-30, 218 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
As you can see, when Indiana has come up against a talented defense and has not been able to dictate things with the run game, Mendoza and the passing game has sputtered a bit. While the star quarterback has still come up big in the clutch, that kind of inconsistent performance won't cut it against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are great at mixing things up on defense without sacrificing their ability to stop the run, and that will be a massive challenge for Mendoza and company on Saturday.
The Heisman Trophy could be on the line as well as the top seed in the College Football Playoff, as Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is also right in the mix for college football's biggest individual honor. Based on how the Hoosiers have looked this season against great defenses, the Buckeyes should have all the answers in Indianapolis.
