The New England Patriots will play their second game inside an empty SoFi Stadium of this week on Thursday in a Week 14 clash—and Super Bowl LIII rematch—with the Los Angeles Rams.
Fresh off a 45-0 thrashing of the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday—the team’s fourth win in five games—the Patriots enter Week 14 at 6-6 and still very much alive in the AFC playoff picture, trailing the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders for the final spot.
New England dominated the Chargers in all three phrases. The Pats scored twice on special teams and played lights out defense, holding rookie sensation Justin Herbert from throwing a touchdown for the first time in his young career. Their ground game, led by Cam Newton and Damien Harris, was productive, as per usual.
The Rams are in a nice groove, too, coming off a solid 38-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. As motivated as New England will be to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race, the Rams should be equally driven to maintain their newfound lead in the NFC West, which they claimed (via tiebreaker edge) after the Seattle Seahawks unexpectedly fell to the New York Giants.
Sean McVay’s squad is favored by five points, per Bovada, but the Patriots have Bill Belichick.
Let’s examine the matchup a little closer and make a few predictions.
1. Belichick will challenge Cam Akers (and co.) to beat them
The Rams run play-action on 33% of Jared Goff’s passes, the third-highest rate in football.
To do this, Sean McVay commits to running the ball, frequently, even when the results are mixed. Through 13 weeks, Los Angeles is in the bottom-half of the league in yards per rush (4.2), but seventh in attempts.
And the backfield is … just good enough. Cam Akers (4.5 YPC) has scored a touchdown in three straight games and has emerged as the top option, while Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are capable runners, too.
Belichick’s game plans are famous for taking away the opposition’s top options. In the case of the L.A. offense, that means wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
Conveniently, New England boasts one of the best secondaries in football. Cornerback J.C. Jackson is second in the league with seven interceptions, and the other corner is 2019 Defensive Player of the Year, Stephon Gilmore. Devin McCourty is still doing his thing at safety.
Watch for Belichick to disrespect the Rams rushing attack and let them hand it off freely as his secondary keeps focus on Kupp and Woods—even in play-action scenarios. If the Rams beat the Patriots in a ground game, so be it.
The Pats’ run defense is a relative weakness, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to egg McVay into essentially playing the Patriots game.
2. The Patriots will (mostly) keep Aaron Donald in check
The Patriots don’t rely too heavily on their wide receivers (especially with Julian Edelman out), so I wouldn’t expect the coaching staff to target Jalen Ramsey. Whichever unfortunate receiver he checks is probably a lost cause.
Aaron Donald has 11 sacks and four forced fumbles on the season, one behind Pittsburgh Steelers defensive end T.J. Watt for the NFL lead. However, Belichick and Josh McDaniels want—and need—to run the ball, and you can envision them obsessing over the challenge of stopping the league’s greatest disrupter.
“He’s an outstanding player. He can wreck a game. There’s no play he’s not a factor on, he’s right in the middle of the defense,” Belichick said about Donald on Tuesday, via the Boston Herald. “You can’t really get away from him on any run or pass play. You have to deal with him blocking on every play. He’s definitely a major factor in the game. We’re going to have to do a good job on him.”
A tall task, but Belichick has pulled it off before. The Patriots were successful in limiting Donald’s impact during Super Bowl LIII: he registered no sacks and one quarterback hit in New England’s 13-3 win. In that game, the Patriots deployed double teams for the first chunk of the game, then relied on guard Joe Thuney’s one-on-one skills more as Donald fatigued.
Thuney is still there, and Belichick could utilize a similar approach on Thursday night.
3. Goff will see Super Bowl ghosts
Goff looked like a deer in the headlights in the ugly Super Bowl. He completed 19 of 38 passes for 229 yards and an interception, and the offense never showed up.
Similar to that 2018 matchup, Goff is coming into Week 14 after a strong performance, tossing 351 yards and no turnovers in the Cardinals win.
But, like the Rams, the Patriots have one of the best defenses in football, especially of late. New England has 18 takeaways on the season, including 14 interceptions. In terms of fantasy, the Patriots have surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, per The Action Network.
The Rams tend to live and die by Goff’s decision-making, which Belichick certainly knows. Goff has nine turnovers in his team’s four losses, and just two across the eight wins.
Belichick will encourage the Rams to run, but Goff and McVay will still want to take shots downfield. If Goff plays like he did last time he faced New England in Feb. 2018, it could be a good day for Patriots D/ST owners. I’m thinking two picks.
4. The Patriots offense will struggle to score, but do enough to cover the spread
Control the ball, control the clock.
You would think that would be the general philosophy for New England heading into the short-week matchup against a staunch D.
The Rams have allowed a 78.6 passer rating to opposing QBs, the second-best in the NFL. Rather than have Cam Newton and his subpar group of wideouts challenge Ramsey and his secondary-mates—and in an effort to slow-down McVay’s offense—expect New England to keep the ball on the ground and attempt to control the time of possession.
New England has run it well this year, averaging over 151 yards per game on the ground. Harris has averaged 5.1 yards per carry (641 yards overall), while Cam Newton has 23 carries for 94 yards over the past two games, and 435 rushing yards and 11 TDs on the season.
Ultimately, running the ball is the 2020 Patriots identity, and they won’t abandon it against the Rams. L.A. owns a respectable run defense, allowing 93.1 yards per game, but the Patriots will have to pick their poison and do their best to dictate the action.
The Pats can’t match the firepower of the Rams, but if they can control the tempo, they can keep it close.
Prediction: Rams 20, Patriots 17
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