The lights were bright, the stage was massive, and all eyes were on Arch Manning. For months, the Texas Longhorns quarterback was hyped as not just the future of the program. He was potentially the face of the 2026 NFL Draft. Yet, after one deflating performance in front of a national audience, the narrative is no longer as rosy. Suddenly, Manning is no longer the golden child of football lineage. Rather, he has become the focal point of heated debates about whether the name ‘Manning' is carrying him further than his play deserves.
Manning’s rough night in Columbus
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning opened the 2025 college football season with a performance that has many questioning whether he’s truly a lock to be a top NFL Draft pick. In a 14-7 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes, Manning struggled mightily. Sure, it was only one game. However, the showing reignited doubts about whether he’s an elite pro prospect or simply a product of the hype surrounding his famous last name and his lineage. Arch, of course, is the grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli.
Before the season, Archie himself suggested that Arch might not enter the 2026 NFL Draft. After watching Saturday’s game, that assessment looks more accurate than ever. Arch did not look ready for the NFL stage.
Throughout the contest, Arch sprayed short passes that sailed wide, overthrew multiple deep routes, and turned the ball over under pressure. On a national stage with one of the season’s biggest audiences watching, he looked nothing like the next Manning destined for NFL stardom. While Peyton and Eli shattered records at Tennessee and Ole Miss, Arch’s play more closely resembled a quarterback still rightfully stuck behind Quinn Ewers the past two seasons.
Here we will look at and discuss four NFL Draft overreactions after Arch Manning's brutal debut vs. Ohio State.
Arch Manning should not join the 2026 NFL Draft class
The knee-jerk reaction to Saturday’s loss is that Arch Manning simply isn’t ready to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. Scouts who were once enamored with his potential are now questioning whether he has the polish, poise, and consistency needed to succeed at the next level. His accuracy woes against Ohio State fueled the perception that he’s closer to a developmental prospect than a plug-and-play starter.
Some analysts are already moving him from ‘first-round lock' to ‘wait-and-see project.' This suggests that 2027 might be his real window if he matures. Note that the draft calendar has always been unkind to quarterbacks who flame out in their showcase moments. Arch's stumble has left evaluators circling his name not with excitement, but with caution.
Arch Manning is not a finished product
Before kickoff, there was talk that Arch was the preseason Heisman favorite. He was ready to torch defenses and write his own chapter in the Manning family saga. By the end of the night, that talk had collapsed. Instead, the narrative shifted to the obvious: Arch is still learning. He may have the physical tools, but his decision-making, pocket presence, and ball placement show he’s still years away from mastering the position at the level expected of a top NFL prospect.
That doesn’t mean his career is doomed. It means expectations were unrealistic. Quarterbacks often take time to refine their game, but his last name created the illusion that greatness would arrive fully formed. The truth is, he looks human now. It's a reminder that development is not linear. Of all people, Arch isn’t immune from the growing pains that every college quarterback faces.
Manning is just not clutch enough
Pressure situations reveal character, and Saturday’s game turned into a referendum on Arch Manning’s ability to handle the moment. It took him nearly 20 minutes of game time to complete a pass. During that span, Texas’ offense sputtered to the point of looking lifeless. Against Ohio State’s elite secondary, Arch appeared rattled, indecisive, and mechanical. He was far from the poised field general fans expected.
The defining plays came at critical junctures. On a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line, he failed to deliver a touchdown throw. It stalled what could have been a momentum-shifting drive. Later, with the game on the line, Arch's comeback attempt unraveled with errant throws that killed any chance of pulling off an upset. In today’s overreaction-heavy draft discourse, those moments weren’t just bad. They were seen as disqualifying. The word ‘bust' entered the conversation far too soon. That will follow him until he proves otherwise.
Manning is just a name
Perhaps the harshest takeaway from Arch's debut is that the hype machine may have been fueled less by production and more by bloodlines. For years, the Manning surname was shorthand for quarterback royalty. It was perceived as a guarantee of intelligence, leadership, and precision passing. On the flip side, what if Arch isn’t destined to follow that script? What if his ceiling is far lower than what the marketing campaigns promised?
Critics were quick to say that this game exposed him as ‘just a name.' Without gaudy college numbers or signature wins, much of Manning’s mystique has rested on highlight clips and pedigree. Against Ohio State, that façade cracked. Until he consistently delivers at the college level, the Manning legacy will feel more like a burden than a blessing.
Looking ahead
The brutal truth about college football is that one game can reshape an entire narrative. Arch Manning’s first real test under the brightest lights turned into a cautionary tale about hype, pressure, and the dangers of premature coronation. He is still talented, still young, and still capable of rewriting the script, but for now, the overreactions are drowning out reason. Whether he grows from this setback or lets it define him will determine if Arch Manning becomes another chapter in the family dynasty—or just a footnote.
