The Kansas City Chiefs Week 6 matchup against the Buffalo Bills is the game the world has been waiting for. Last year, they played in one of the most exciting football games anyone has ever seen. The Chiefs defeated the Bills in the AFC Divisional Round playoff game to reach the AFC Championship after a 42-36 win in overtime.
The first half of that game was surprisingly low scoring. But once the second half began, the fireworks started. Both teams went up and down the field on each other. Everyone knows the story about the 13 seconds and the coin flip. I'm sure Bills fans would prefer not to be reminded.
According to FanDuel, the Bills are actually 2.5 point favorites in this game. That is likely in large part due to the balance between their offense and defense. Whereas, the Chiefs have shown some kinks in their defense in recent weeks. Nevertheless, this game should be a blast to watch and a treat for all NFL fans.
So, let's get right into the Chiefs Week 6 predictions vs. the Bills.
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3. Chiefs lean on running game more than usual
Everyone was curious exactly what affect the loss of Tyreek Hill would have on the Chiefs offense. Most people thought Kansas City might struggle to score the way they had previously. That has not turned out to be the case. The Chiefs are 6th in the NFL in yards per game and lead the league in scoring at 31.8 points per game.
However, they are doing it in different ways this year. Kansas City has shown a willingness to stick to the run a bit more. They are middle of the pack running the football at over 114 yards per game. That's nothing to write home about, but is still a nice change from season's past.
The Bills are probably the only team that is more dangerous to score than the Chiefs. Therefore, it would make a lot of sense for Kansas City to attempt to run the ball and keep Josh Allen off the field. That always plays perfectly into how the Chiefs run their offense without Hill.
Gone are the days of two-play, 80 yard touchdown drives. QB Patrick Mahomes has shown a lot of growth and understanding, willing to take the check down and run the ball. Both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie tailback Isiah Pacheco have been effective this year with the rookie showing a ton of juice.
#Chiefs rookie RB Isiah Pacheco: "When I get in the huddle, I like to get in the OL's face and give them a little bit more juice like, 'Let's go!'"
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) October 6, 2022
I look for 20 plus carries between them this game.
2. Patrick Mahomes will struggle through the air
This Bills defense is easily going to be the biggest test Mahomes and the new Chiefs offense has faced. They were slowed by the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers' defenses in back to back weeks. Only to then explode against an elite unit in Tampa Bay. But even that Bucs defense has not played nearly as well as their reputation leads many to believe. That's particularly true against the run.
The Bills have been on another level this year. They are allowing just over 12 points per game, tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the league lead. But they also have not faced an offense like Kansas City's. So, it will be strength versus strength.
Fewest points allowed this season:
61 — 49ers
61 — Bills
72 — CowboysWho has the best defense in the NFL? pic.twitter.com/SNBBNM1hDp
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 12, 2022
In last year's playoff game, the Chiefs were able to use their speed to create explosive plays in the passing game. Hill had a monster game. He will be missed here as the Bills can keep JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in front of them. That is going to make life more difficult for Mahomes through the air.
I believe it will be his legs that make a big difference in this game.
1. Chiefs secondary exposed by Bills again
One of the big questions for Kansas City was how their secondary would fair without its leader, Tyrann Mathieu. After a very good start to the season, Kansas City's secondary has really struggled the last two weeks. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers passing game finally got on track this season vs. the Chiefs two weeks ago.
Brady threw for a season-high 381 yards in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs. Then last week, Derek Carr had a solid day through the air. He hit Davante Adams for not one, but two bomb touchdown passes. That's something no one does better than Josh Allen. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers. The last thing the Chiefs defense needed was to see Josh Allen and the Bills this week.
98-YD TD and this one-handed grab… TOTW Gabriel Davis? #Madden23 pic.twitter.com/ix1mX5XQw5
— Madden Ultimate Team (@EASPORTS_MUT) October 9, 2022
I believe Kansas City will have control of time of possession. When the Bills strike, it will be quick. But that could play into the Chiefs' hands, helping keep their defense fresh late in the game.