Week 2 of the NFL season features a particularly intriguing matchup as the Atlanta Falcons (0-1) travel to face the Minnesota Vikings (1-0). And this one comes with plenty of storylines.
First, these teams had very different Week 1 outcomes. At home, the Falcons looked poised to notch a third straight win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before Baker Mayfield hit rookie Emeka Egbuka for the go-ahead score. On the ensuing drive, Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-tying field goal, leaving the Falcons in search of answers at kicker.
The Vikings, meanwhile, looked disjointed for three quarters against the Chicago Bears — until J.J. McCarthy came alive and flipped the game. McCarthy accounted for three total touchdowns and walked off looking every bit like the first-round pick he was drafted to be over a year ago.
Second, this is sort of a rematch between McCarthy and Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr., both first-rounders from last year. The two last faced each other on the biggest stage, meeting in the College Football Playoff National Championship two years ago, when Michigan beat Washington.
Lastly, there’s the underplayed angle: another homecoming of sorts for Kirk Cousins. Even if Cousins will be riding the bench, his return to Minnesota remains a storyline that will get at least a brief mention.
J.J. McCarthy shows regression against Falcons
Look, we all know about the Falcons’ pass rush problems. That’s why they drafted two first-rounders this year to get after the quarterback. But they’re still rookies, and this defensive front has a ways to go, even if there is promise.
However, the Falcons came away as one of the best teams in the league in Week 1 at pressuring the quarterback. They ranked fourth in the NFL in pressure rate on dropbacks at 40.5 percent, according to The 33rd Team. Yet they still only got to Baker Mayfield once.
Regardless, pressuring the quarterback at any rate is better than none at all, and that could still pose a problem for a quarterback like McCarthy going into just his second NFL game. Something else to consider with McCarthy is how focused he will be. He and his wife just had their first child this week, and obviously he has been there for that — as he should be. But it could still play a factor in his performance.
Falcons and Vikings defense each create two turnovers
This game could come down to which team turns the ball over less. With the inexperience of both quarterbacks and it being just Week 2 of the NFL season, mistakes are bound to happen.
McCarthy has already thrown a pick-six against the Bears on Monday night, and if the Falcons can get to him, a strip sack is in play. The same goes for Penix, who showed he can make plays with his legs when he wants to. But that could also prove dangerous against a team that ranked second in takeaways last year.
Penix will be facing a much tougher defense this weekend than what he saw against the Bucs, even though they are solid under Todd Bowles. Minnesota got to Caleb Williams twice last week, and now they face an offensive line with a few new pieces due to free agency and injury. Look for Brian Flores to dial up the pressure on Penix.
Falcons have under 300 yards of total offense
The Falcons have enough offensive weapons to move the ball down the field, yet it still feels like they’re working out the kinks. Last week, they had trouble establishing the run, even with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rotating in the backfield. They rushed for just 69 total yards on 28 carries for 2.5 yards per carry.
That’s concerning if you’re a Falcons fan. What’s also concerning is that the passing game could be threatened by injuries to Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Both returned to practice Wednesday, but how healthy they are remains a mystery. Mooney had been dealing with injuries during training camp, while London left last week’s game late with a shoulder injury.
This puts even more pressure on Penix to make something happen. While Robinson is still an option, either in the backfield or split out as a receiver, a team like the Vikings will shut that down quickly.
Vikings kicking game the difference in rather sloppy game
The Falcons are like a few other teams in the league right now, looking to strengthen their kicking situation. As of this writing, Younghoe Koo is still set to be the starter, but the Falcons have brought in competition, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Atlanta signed Parker Romo on Wednesday. His only NFL action came with the Vikings last year, when he went 11-for-12 on field goals and 7-for-8 on extra points in four games.
Whether it’s Koo or Romo, the Falcons still can’t feel confident in their kicking game, and that uncertainty is liable to come back to bite them again. If this game turns into a sluggish offensive showing for Atlanta, they’ll have to settle for field goals. But who’s to say they’ll make them?
Likewise, it could be just as ugly for Minnesota offensively, but the Vikings have a much more reliable kicker in Will Reichard.
Expect quite a few field goal attempts in this one, with the Vikings coming out on top.
