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The Chicago Blackhawks have missed the playoffs for a fifth straight season. They have already made offseason moves, with the Blackhawks hiring Jeff Blashill as their new head coach. Now they have other offseason decisions to make. While Lukas Reichel has been mentioned in trade rumors, we look at why trading Reichel must not happen this offseason.
Reichel was picked with the 17th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft. He was the second player from the DEL in Germany selected in the draft after Tim Stutzle was selected with the third overall pick by the Ottawa Senators. Reichel would sign a three-year entry-level contract with the Blackhawks in the 2021 offseason and would make his NHL debut in the 2021-22 season. He would play in just 11 games that year and spend time in the AHL in each of the next two seasons.
Last offseason, Reichel would be a restricted free agent. He would sign a two-year, $2.4 million contract to remain with the Blackhawks. He will once again be a restricted free agent at the end of this offseason. Reichel will also be just 24 years old this season, making him still part of the young core that will provide hope for the future of this Blackhawks team.
Lukas Reichel is still young and developing
Reichel will turn just 24 years old this offseason. He joins the young core that includes Connor Bedard, who is 19, Frank Nazar, who is 21, and Colton Dach, who is 22. He has not been getting the same level of ice time as the other three young stars. Bedard is the star of the team and is on the ice for over 20 minutes per game. Still, Nazar is logging over 15 minutes of ice time while Dach is over 12 minutes. Reichel was playing just 11:54 minutes of ice time this past year, which was the lowest of his NHL career.
Still, his production was up from years past. He has played primarily with the fourth line for the Blackhawks this past season. Meanwhile, he set career highs in goals, assists, and points. Further, his plus/minus rating went from -29 in 2023-24 to -16 last year. Further, his advanced stats have improved over the past season. First, his Individual Point Percentage (IPP) improved for a third straight year. This is the percentage of goals the player was involved in when a goal was scored by his team with him on the ice. It was 86.36 percent of the time last season, Reichel was either the goal or the assist when a goal was scored with Reichel on the ice. That is up over 20 percent in the last two years, showing he is becoming more involved in the play.
Second, while Reichel took fewer shots per 60 minutes of ice time, he generated more scoring opportunities, increasing his scoring chances by nearly one every five games of play. Finally, his defense was better this past year. The goal differential with him on the ice this year was negative six this year. That is down from the minus 25 the year before. Further, he increased his takeaway total by 20 takeaways last year. He also increased his hit total by 20 hits. Finally, he increased his total shots blocked by 11 shots blocked.
The Blackhawks will not benefit from the move
For the Blackhawks to make a move, it also has to benefit them. Not only is Reichel improving as a player in all aspects of the game, but there is no solid argument as to how this will improve the team. First, the Blackhawks are expected to have almost $30 million in cap space according to PuckPedia. Moving on from Reichel would save just $1.2 million. The Blackhawks may go after big-name free agents, such as Mitch Marner. Still, they will have more than enough space in the cap to make that move without losing Reichel.
Second, the return may not be worth it. Reichel will not bring a high draft pick. The Blackhawks have two first-round picks and two second-round picks this year. Further, they have five picks in the first two rounds next year. With nine picks over the first two rounds in the next two years, the Blackhawks could bring in another flock of young players while allowing Reichel to develop.
Third, Reichel is under team control. He will be a restricted free agent again next year. This means the Blackhawks can wait until next offseason to let him walk, or tender him and potentially get a return. Further, while Reichel did improve last year, if he improves again and plays minutes commensurate with a middle-six forward, his value will go up. This will allow the Blackhawks to potentially get more later for him. With a strong first half, they could move Reichel at the trade deadline. They could also wait until next offseason and get compensation. With no pressing need to move Reichel, and him improving year over year, holding off on a trade is the best move right now.
