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After advancing to back-to-back Western Conference Finals the last two seasons, the Dallas Stars have established themselves as a perennial contender in the National Hockey League. Although the core has been unable to break through over the last few years, the Stars are just a half-decade removed from coming within two victories of capturing the 2020 Stanley Cup.
This organization remains looking for a breakthrough after a couple of difficult postseason defeats. The Stars were beaten by the Edmonton Oilers in six games last year, and the Vegas Golden Knights in six the campaign before. Dallas has been all around the championship conversation, but the franchise remains without a title since 1999.
In 2024-25, things again got off to a great start in Texas. The Stars began the season 13-6, vaulting to the top of the Central Division and looking like another strong regular-season would be in the cards. But things have started to go off the rails as of late. Since November 25, Pete DeBoer's club has won seven and lost seven, falling to 20-13 heading into the holiday break.
Stars are playing .500 hockey, and Central Division is crowded
The Stars defeated the Utah Hockey Club 3-2 on Monday night, heading into the three-day pause with some positive momentum. But overall, it's been a really tough stretch for the team. A Dallas squad that is not at all used to playing .500 hockey has been right at that pace over the last several weeks.
And it's deeply affecting the Stars in the standings. As of Christmas Eve, they're fourth in the Central Division, and a full 11 points back of the first place Winnipeg Jets. Dallas is holding onto the final wildcard berth in the Western Conference for dear life, currently just one point up on the Calgary Flames and two on Utah after Monday's triumph.
It doesn't help that the Central has become a crowded division. All of the Jets, Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild are entrenched at the top of the division, and that trio should all remain competitive for the top spot down the stretch. Utah is on the up-and-up after a red hot stretch, while the St. Louis Blues have played much better since Jim Montgomery took over for Drew Bannister behind the bench.
All that being said, securing a top-three finish in the division is going to be a tall task, and the pace the Stars are currently on is not going to cut it. That's certainly concerning — as is the continued absence of Tyler Seguin.
Tyler Seguin's absence continues to loom large
Seguin was in the midst of his best NHL campaign in a decade before devastatingly going down with a hip injury early in December. He underwent surgery shortly after to repair a left side FAI (femoral acetabular impingement) and the left side hip labrum. Expected to miss four to six months, the 32-year-old is unlikely to be an option at all the rest of the regular-season.
It's hard to explain how important Seguin was to this roster in 2024-25. The second line, which featured him, Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, was producing more than any other group on the team before his injury. With 20 points in 19 games, Seguin was playing inspired hockey and looking like one of the best skaters on the team on a nightly basis.
Not only did the roster lose him, but Marchment and Duchene just haven't been the same since he got injured. The former has battled various ailments himself this season, but has gone pointless in his last six games. The latter hasn't been much better; Duchene has just one point of his own in the same span. Considering these two are leading the Stars in scoring, it's certainly a concerning development.
It doesn't help at all that the top line of Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson hasn't been nearly as effective as it should be. Johnston broke out last year, but the youngster has managed just 20 points in 33 games. Hintz and Robertson haven't been much better; the Finn is at 15 goals and 21 points in 33 games, while the American is at 23 points in 33 tilts.
That trio's play has been extremely disappointing, and it's certainly holding the Stars back. If Marchment and Duchene can't find their footing without Seguin, a once-powerhouse offensive core could be in need of significant tweaking ahead of the March 7 NHL Trade Deadline.
Along with the spluttering offensive core, another cause for concern is the play of Jake Oettinger, which has been much more up-and-down than the front office would like.
Jake Oettinger has struggled at times between the pipes
Oettinger is a premier goaltender in the National Hockey League, and the Stars will continue to start him with confidence going forward. It doesn't change the fact that the American has turned in a couple of rough starts as of late.
The 26-year-old allowed four goals on 16 shots in a 5-3 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on December 18 before being pulled after the second period. A couple of games before that, he let in three goals on 20 shots in a loss to the Los Angeles Kings on December 4. Although Oettinger usually bounces back after a tough start — and he continues to do that in 2024-25 — his play is leaving something to be desired. He was lights out at the beginning of the season, and the Stars badly need him to find that form.
As it stands, there's more reason for concern than hope in Texas right now. One of the best second lines in hockey has been decimated by Seguin's injury, and the top line has been playing like anything but one in 2024-25. A ton of forwards need to figure out their game, and it starts with Johnston, Robertson, Hintz and Duchene.
If the offense can begin to gain some positive momentum heading into the New Year, and Oettinger settles down between the pipes, Dallas should again be a playoff team next spring. But nobody expected this roster to be on the bubble this year, and that's got to be concerning for fans of the franchise who expect nothing less than another deep Stanley Cup Playoff run in 2025.
