The New York Islanders are in a heated playoff race with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets. Only two of those teams can get in through the Metropolitan Division spots, but the Wild Card spots are available as well. The Islanders making the Stanley Cup Playoffs was a dream to start the season, but now seeding has become important for the team. What is their dream scenario for the postseason?
The Islanders must focus on just getting into the postseason. They did not have playoff expectations coming into the season, but Matthew Schaefer and Ilya Sorokin have raised the ceiling significantly. The Islanders are building a home-ice advantage at UBS Arena, and a deep playoff run could finish the breaking-in process of the new facility. There is a specific set of circumstances that could get the Islanders back to the Conference Finals.
The Islanders enter St Patrick's Day action two points behind the Penguins in the Metropolitan Division. With a game left against Sidney Crosby's club, they could overtake the Pens and finish second in the division. That is the dream scenario: for the Islanders to overtake the Penguins and get home-ice advantage in the first round.
Playing Pittsburgh has been a good matchup for the Islanders in recent history. They beat the Penguins in the first round of the 2019 and 2021 postseasons. But a goaltending change may have changed things, as Tristan Jarry is no longer there. Stuart Skinner has had playoff success, which could change the fate of the Penguins.
But still, they are a better matchup right now than the Blue Jackets. Since hiring Rick Bowness as the head coach, Columbus has been one of the best teams in the league. The Islanders' dream is to pass the Penguins and still play them in the first round.
The Islanders must avoid the Hurricanes to make a deep run
If the Penguins have been a favorable matchup for the Islanders in recent years, the Hurricanes have been the exact opposite. They beat the Isles in the second round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs and the first round in 2023 and 2024. In those three sets, New York won a combined three games.
The Hurricanes are coasting to a Metropolitan Division title, their fourth in the last six years. Under Rod Brind'Amour, they have been one of the most consistent contenders in the Eastern Conference. Even though they have not made the Stanley Cup Final in this run, they are still a scary matchup in the spring.
If the Islanders' dream scenario comes to fruition and they beat the Penguins, they would likely face the Hurricanes in the second round. That is, of course, as long as Carolina doesn't lose to the top Wild Card team, which is currently the Detroit Red Wings. Even in the dream scenario, the Isles get a brutal matchup before they get to the Conference Finals.
All of this will be valuable experience for an Islanders team that, admittedly, has a lot of it. But the two most important players, Schaefer and Sorokin, have not had a ton of playoff time. Schaefer was taking physics in an Ontario high school during last year's postseason, so it will be very new to him. But Sorokin has made 12 starts in the postseason with a solid 2.83 goals-against average.
The last time the Islanders were in the playoffs, Sorokin struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost his job to Semyon Varlamov. Sorokin made one appearance in the 2024 series against the Hurricanes, allowing three goals on 14 shots before he was pulled.
The Islanders' dream scenario obviously involves playing at home and avoiding the Hurricanes. But the biggest dream fans can have is Schaefer and Sorokin becoming playoff superstars. This core has a few more playoff runs in it, both in terms of age and contract status. This year should be about setting a high bar, and the next two years will be about clearing it.
