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For the ninth straight season, the Toronto Maple Leafs made the playoffs. This year, they were eliminated by the Florida Panthers in seven games. Still, this is the ninth straight season that the Maple Leafs failed to make it to the conference finals. Now they have to make multiple decisions regarding free agents, including restricted free agent Matthew Knies. We look at the three best destinations for Knies as a restricted free agent.
Knies is coming off a highly successful season with the Maple Leafs. He played most of the season on the top line, often paired with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Knies would finish the year with 29 goals and 29 assists, placing him fifth on the team with 58 total points. Further, he had five goals and ten assists on the power play. This was also an improvement on his 2023-24 campaign, where he scored 15 goals and added 20 assists.
Knies is a restricted free agent, which means that if another team attempted to sign Knies, the Maple Leafs would be able to match the contract. If a new team has an accepted offer for Knies, the new team will provide draft pick compensation to the Maple Leafs based on the annual average value of the contract. Knies is expected to have a contract worth an AAV of at least $4.18 million, which would lead to draft compensation of a 2026 second-round pick. Still, if the contract is much higher, that could move to a 2026 first and third-round pick.
Knies stays home
Knies has made it known, he would like to stay in Toronto next year. First, the Maple Leafs are projected to have the cap space to accommodate re-signing Knies. They are projected to have $26.3 million in cap space next year, which would allow them to give Knies a substantial pay raise. Further, Knies was an integral part of the top line this year. He played well in the absence of Auston Matthews and was solid with Matthews and Marner. Marner is a pending free agent and may not be able to re-sign with the Maple Leafs. Even if the Maple Leafs can re-sign both Marner and Knies, they would most likely lose John Tavares to free agency, and would like to keep Knies' production on the team.
Further, the Maple Leafs have enough cap room to make it harder for another team to sign Knies. The Maple Leafs currently have the flexibility to sign Knies to a longer-term deal with a higher AAV. They could aim for over $7.02 million, which would limit the teams able to sign Knies to just 11 due to having to have a first, second, and third-round pick this year that could be moved.
Knies partners with another young star
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One of the teams with the picks and need for another young star is the Chicago Blackhawks. First, the Blackhawks have two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a third round, and two fourth-round picks in 2026. This means the Blackhawks could sign Knies to an offer sheet and still have early draft picks in the 2026 NHL Draft. The Blackhawks also have $40 million in cap space this year, and very few free agents to re-sign. Only Andreas Athanasiou and Ryan Donato are unrestricted free agents this year.
The Blackhawks scored just 2.74 goals per game this past year, and could use another weapon next to Connor Bedard. If Donato is not brought back, the Blackhawks lose their top goalscorer and the man who was second on the team in points. Still, the Blackhawks could re-sign Donato and bring in Knies. This would allow Knies to replace Ilya Mikheyev on the top line, who scored just 20 goals and added 14 assists.
Utah finds a new weapon
The Utah Mammoth are also expected to be aggressive in free agency this year. Utah finished just seven points outside of a playoff spot. With some increased scoring, they could make a run at the playoffs. Utah struggled to score this past year, sitting 21st in the NHL in goals per game, scoring just 2.93 goals per game. Further, Utah was tenth in the NHL on the power play and 15th on the penalty kill.
Utah has a solid young core led by Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley. Keller had 90 points on the year, while Cooley had 65. Further, Knies could fit on that top line, or go with Nick Schmaltz and Dylan Guenther on the second line. This would give the Mammoth two quality lines of scoring options. Utah will also have the cap space to make this move. They are projected to have $21 million in cap space this year. With few free agents needing to be re-signed, but available cap space and draft capital, the Mammoth have all that is necessary to make a move for Knies.
