The Detroit Tigers are not likely to trade Tarik Skubal. With two more years of team control, Skubal can be the rotation centerpiece around a Tigers franchise that aims to compete in the next few years. But that won't stop teams, including the first-place Baltimore Orioles, from trying to land him.
And (almost) everyone has a price.
No doubt a team would have to overwhelm the Tigers to get them to move a guy who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. The Orioles have the farm system to do just that, as MLB Network's Jon Morosi pointed out recently.
“The Tigers have not said one way or the other at this juncture if Skubal is going to be available,” he said. “The one team that we could imagine potentially having a compelling conversation with the Tigers would be the Baltimore Orioles because of the amount of high-level, position-player talent they have in the minor leagues and certainly among their young major leaguers, as well.”
If the Orioles are serious about making a run at Skubal, it's going to cost them multiple top-tier prospects. Here's what a potential Tarik Skubal trade to the Orioles could look like
Orioles receive: Tarik Skubal (LHP)
Tigers receive: Samuel Basallo (AA, C/1B), Dylan Beavers (AA, OF), Seth Johnson (AA, RHP), Juan Nunez (A+, RHP)
The Orioles have three prospects ranked in the top 100 at MLB.com if you count Jackson Holliday, who made his inauspicious debut in April. They're going to have to part with at least one and maybe two if they have any prayer of prying Skubal from Detroit. They're package is also going to have to have near-Major-League-ready talent.
The prospect package that could send Tarik Skubal to the Orioles
In the above proposal, the Orioles would lose their No. 2, 6, 9, and 25 prospects, but the potential return is huge. By improving every season since he broke into the league in 2020, Skubal has shown he's no flash in the pan. Will he pitch to a 2.41 ERA while playing the rest of this season and beyond in the AL East? Maybe not. But the Orioles would be receiving a bona fide Cy Young candidate with two more years of arbitration.
Basallo, the Orioles' second-ranked prospect per MLB.com, has hit for power at every level of the minors so far, carrying a career .850 OPS. With Adley Rutschman behind the plate in Baltimore, however, he's splitting his time between catcher and first base, where he's steadily improved. His natural position of catcher makes him a little more expendable for Baltimore and his versatility makes him a little more desirable as a trade chip.
Beavers is a five-tool prospect a couple years removed from playing at Cal. He's hit just .237 in Double-A, but his combination of speed, power, and an outfielder's arm make it easy to overlook some streakiness. Barring injury, the lefty hitter seems like a safe bet to carve out a Major League career and he has the upside to be more than just an average everyday player.
Johnson might be starting to realize his upside. In his first full season post-Tommy John surgery, he has pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a strikeout an inning in Double-A. He's a fastball/curveball/slider/change guy with above-average stuff who could be ready to pitch in the Majors later this year.
If you call Nunez the lottery ticket of the bunch, it might be more like a Powerball play. He's only in High-A, is small (5'11) and profiles more as a relief pitcher. But if he can harness his power, he can make it in the Majors. He has struck out 38 batters in 29.1 innings pitched this year in both starting and relief duty. Nunez's control has improved with a 3.1 walks per nine rate this year.
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