It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mariners prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Phillies-Mariners.
The Philadelphia Phillies are going through their roughest patch of the 2024 season. They're still a really good team, but really good teams go through at least one really nasty sequence of games over the course of 162. Such is the reality of baseball. The Phillies lost five of six home games — which is unheard of — and then came to Seattle and got crushed on Friday in the first game of this series, 10-2. The game was over not that long after it began. Seattle scored seven runs in the second inning, highlighted by a grand slam from new acquisition Justin Turner, to grab an 8-0 lead and effectively salt it away. The Phillies love their young righthanded pitcher Tyler Phillips. He entered the game 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in a handful of starts. The Mariners obliterated his stuff. That's how it is going for the Phils right now. Their pitchers are all slumping at the same time, and their hitters aren't getting the big high-impact hits they are known for producing. As you can see below, the pitching matchup is not naturally tilted in the Phillies' favor. They will need a few special performances from their roster if they are going to win this game.
Phillies-Mariners Projected Starters
Kolby Allard vs. Bryce Miller
Kolby Allard (0-0) has a 6.75 ERA. Allard made his first start of the season this past Sunday against the team with the best record in baseball — better than the Phillies given that Philadelphia has lost the plot — and gave up a three-run homer. He pitched a few scoreless innings but then got hit hard the second time through the Cleveland batting order. That will be the big plot point here in Seattle: What happens when Allard goes up against the Mariners for the second time in the batting order? That might decide the outcome of the game.
Last Start: Sunday, July 28 versus the Cleveland Guardians: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
2024 Road Splits: none
Bryce Miller (8-7) has a 3.46 ERA. Bryce Miller is a very good pitcher in general, but at home he is special. Look at the home splits numbers below. That's just phenomenal. Miller averages over six innings per home start. He averages close to a 2.00 ERA. He walks just two batters per nine innings, and he strikes out more than one hitter per inning with very few home runs allowed. He checks all the boxes for a modern starting pitcher, and he performs at a Cy Young level when pitching in Seattle. This is why we say the matchup is tilted against the Phillies.
Last Start: Sunday, July 28 versus the Chicago White Sox: 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 6 K
2024 Home Splits: 11 starts, 67 IP, 43 H, 15 R, 4 HR, 16 BB, 76 K
Here are the Phillies-Mariners MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mariners Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +100
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Phillies vs Mariners
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies) / Root SportsNet Northwest (Mariners) / MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
This team is too good to continue to play horrible baseball. We know the Phillies will break out of this slump. It's just a matter of when. After Friday's embarrassing performance, expect the Phils to come out firing here and win a high-scoring game.
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
Bryce Miller at home is cash money. Kolby Allard is learning on the job for the Phillies. The Mariners have a huge advantage in the pitching matchup.
Final Phillies-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Phillies are the better team and are due for a good game, but they are struggling and have a bad pitching matchup. It's really hard to get a good read on this game, especially after Tyler Phillips — who was dealing — got roughed up by the M's on Friday. Pass on this one.
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Final Phillies-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners moneyline
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