Not too long ago, the Toronto Raptors achieved the unthinkable by defeating the Golden State Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals. Led by superstar Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors captured their first championship in franchise history and appeared to be a new powerhouse in the Eastern Conference for many years to come.
But since that championship, the Raptors have only made the postseason twice. They lost in the 2020 Eastern Conference Semifinals, followed by missing the playoffs entirely after winning just 27 games during the 2020-21 season. Then they made it back to the playoffs in 2022, losing in the first round to the Philadelphia 76ers.
The 2022-23 season truly seemed like a make-or-break one for Toronto. Unfortunately, over the course of the year, they just could not put things together. Consistency problems and the constant change in the team's rotations due to injuries caused a disconnect to form internally, which resulted in a disappointing 41-41 season and a collapse against the Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament. The Raptors then dismissed 2019-20 NBA Coach of the Year Nick Nurse.
Masai Ujiri is the man tasked with fixing things in Toronto. Ujiri is one of the best executives in the entire league, but for as much success as he has had with the Raptors (five seasons with at least 50 wins since the start of the 2015-16 season), he is faced with a daunting task this offseason given the need for a new coach and the status of the roster. Toronto has never really faced a true rebuild in recent memory despite some retooling seasons in the early 2010s, but Ujiri and the front office may have to consider taking a step backward this offseason in order for long-term success to present itself.
Raptors' coaching search
Finding Nurse's successor seems to be the first order of business in Toronto right now, as the organization has a wide pool of potential candidates. Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson, Milwaukee Bucks assistant Charles Lee, Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young, San Antonio Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson, Sacramento Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez and Memphis Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajakovic have all been on the Raptors' radar, as has current WNBA coach and former Spurs assistant Becky Hammon. However, Hammon never actually interviewed with the Raptors and is likely to remain with the Las Vegas Aces.
Former NBA player and current ESPN analyst JJ Redick interviewed for the position, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, as did former Brooklyn Nets head coach and NBA Hall of Famer Steve Nash. A Canadian basketball legend, Nash could be a sneaky candidate for the Raptors. Current Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin, who is also a finalist for the Bucks' head coaching vacancy, is another name to consider in Toronto.
Raptors' roster outlook
The Raptors are expected to take their time with appointing their next head coach, but whoever is awarded the job will not necessarily know what their roster will look like heading into next season. The uncertainty surrounding Toronto's core will grow larger every day leading up to free agency. Jakob Poeltl, whom the team just traded for at the trade deadline, is set to be an unrestricted free agent and both Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet are expected to join him.
They both hold player options for the 2023-24 season that many around the league are anticipating them opting out of to seek larger, long-term deals. Assuming Trent and VanVleet opt out of their deals, the Raptors could have a very hard time retaining both players in the open market, especially with having to negotiate a new deal with Poeltl as well. It is hard to imagine they will let Poeltl walk in free agency after giving up a 2024 first-round pick and two second-round picks to get him from San Antonio this season.
Trent's situation is very interesting, as his role in Toronto declined over the last year and league sources say the 24-year-old sharpshooter would like to hold a larger role moving forward in his career. With Trent likely to see offers worth upwards of $20 million per year, the Raptors letting him walk is a very real possibility.
On the other hand, VanVleet's situation will be very telling as to what the future holds for this franchise. One of the leaders of the team for the last several seasons, VanVleet is one of four players still remaining from that 2019 championship team and is one of the more underrated All-Star-level talents in the league. With a smaller, less-talented free agent class this offseason, the Raptors point guard would be one of the best players available on the open market should he opt out of his player option.
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers both pursued him at the trade deadline this past season, sources say, and they could be prepared to pursue VanVleet once again in the offseason. The Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls are two other teams who could get in the mix for the veteran this offseason given their glaring needs in the backcourt. Keep an eye on the Philadelphia 76ers as well pertaining to VanVleet, as they will be super aggressive in terms of trying to replace James Harden should he depart in free agency. The Los Angeles Lakers could also be lurking.
Even before VanVleet and Trent make their decisions in free agency, the Raptors will have to focus on the 2023 NBA Draft and if that will be the start of a potential rebuild. Toronto owns the 13th overall pick in this year's draft, but they have no second-round picks and zero picks next year as a result of the Poeltl trade.
Outside of Scottie Barnes, Toronto does not have much of a young core due to Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn and recent second-round pick Christian Koloko holding minimal roles. Achiuwa saw about 20 minutes per game this season, but he is nothing more than a bench talent with Poeltl and the rest of this team's frontcourt talent being present.
Big Raptors trade coming?
Moving up in this year's draft to potentially grab one of the top players in the class is certainly a possibility, which raises questions about either Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby getting moved. Packaging one of them with the 13th overall pick could be enough value for the Raptors to move into the top five of this year's draft, and possibly even the top three with the Portland Trail Blazers shopping the No. 3 overall pick. The Blazers have made their intentions of improving their roster around Damian Lillard known, and they have shown interest in both Siakam and Anunoby in the past.
If there is a trade to be had between the Raptors and Trail Blazers involving the third overall pick, Toronto would be looking toward the future by pairing Barnes with a young, dynamic talent like Scoot Henderson, assuming he does not go second overall to the Charlotte Hornets.
Taking a step back and simply building for the future seems like the most reasonable approach for this franchise given their status in the Eastern Conference right now. Then again, Ujiri has never been afraid to make championship moves like he did acquiring Leonard from the Spurs for DeMar DeRozan, who was beloved by the entire organization.
The Raptors trying to make one last-ditch effort for a title with what they have still remains an option on the table, especially with a head coaching candidate like Monty Williams available. Bringing in Williams to take over for Nurse and then making a big move via the trade market to bring in another All-Star talent instantly puts the Raptors back at the forefront of everyone's mind in the Eastern Conference. However, whether or not Williams wants to continue coaching is a prominent discussion amongst league, as many are expecting the former Suns head coach to take the 2023-24 season off.
As an organization, the Raptors truly find themselves at an inflection point that will change the trajectory of their future. One path leads them to a rebuild that could result in having the best young core in the league and a championship future once more, while the other keeps them on the path to success momentarily with their long-term future hidden. Ujiri and Toronto control their own fate at this point entering the offseason, which is what makes their dilemma even more intriguing.
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