Bobby Witt Jr. will win the 2024 American League MVP award.
With Shohei Ohtani now in the National League after signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, you don't need to hit 60-plus home runs to take home AL MVP honors any longer. And Witt, who agreed to a massive 11-year, $288.7 million contract extension with the Kansas City Royals on Monday, is on the verge of an elite season.
Sure, Witt already had a breakout campaign. Following his productive rookie season in 2022, Witt slashed .276/.319/.495/.813 in 2023. The Royals infielder added 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases, 28 doubles, and a league-leading 11 triples. Witt established himself as a star and even earned MVP consideration.
Yet, this is a player who is only 23 years old. He's still improving and 2024 projects to be his biggest season. The Royals, meanwhile, have made moves to upgrade the roster. Kansas City may realistically be able to compete for a playoff spot in the lackluster AL Central.
Okay, but you are surely looking for specific reasoning as to why Witt will contend for the AL MVP award in 2024.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on the verge of an MVP season
Let's take a deep Baseball Reference dive and look at some intriguing numbers.
In 2023, Witt increased almost all of his underlying statistics. He recorded a stellar 45.5 hard-hit rate and 25.9 percent line drive rate.
Interestingly, Witt actually saw a decrease in his fly-ball rate. After hitting the ball in the air 33.4 percent of the time in 2022, Witt posted just a 28.4 percent fly-ball rate in 2023. Given all of the data on launch angles in today's game, that mark is expected to increase in 2024.
Nevertheless, Witt still managed to crush 30 home runs while hitting fly-balls less than 30 percent of the time. Assuming he starts hitting the ball in the air on a more consistent basis, it wouldn't be surprising to see Bobby Witt Jr. finish the 2024 season with 35 or more homers.
Another encouraging statistic is that Witt saw his strikeout percentage drop from 21.4 percent in 2022 to 17.4 percent in 2023. Now, that mark also may increase if Witt starts swinging for the fences more often. Since his strikeout rate was already low in 2023, however, Witt can afford to strikeout a few more times and still be successful.
Stolen bases will only help Witt's case as well. He swiped 49 bags in 2023, so there's no reason to think he won't record 40-plus steals once again if he stays healthy.
Defense will also boost Witt's chances. He's played shortstop and third base during his MLB career, and the Royals envision him being their shortstop of the future. Playing respectable defense at a premier position is something MVP voters will take into consideration.
Of course, if the Royals do find a way to at least compete for a playoff spot, Bobby Witt Jr. will surely be in the middle of their success. And that certainly won't hurt his MVP odds.
There is still plenty of talent in the American League despite Shohei Ohtani's departure to the National League. But Bobby Witt Jr. will be a player to keep an eye on throughout the 2024 campaign.
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