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Excluding the unpredictability of whether James Harden will suit up in the regular season, one major reason that the Philadelphia 76ers are losing outside confidence in their ability to make a deep playoff run is the question marks surrounding their bench. It's an issue exacerbated by the Harden angle but would still be one for the Sixers regardless of what he does.
Last year's Sixers had a respectfully deep team that included athletic, 3-and-D wild cards like Danuel House Jr. and Jalen McDaniels (who replaced defensive wizard Matisse Thybulle), one of the best spot-up shooters in the league in Georges Niang and a steady combo guard in Shake Milton.
Paul Reed and House remain, though the latter was in-and-mostly-out of the Sixers rotation for much of last season, while everyone else has gone onto new teams. Whether Patrick Beverley, Mo Bamba, Kelly Oubre Jr. and a returning Danny Green can be as useful remains to be seen.
Of the young players on the roster, Jaden Springer seems like the likeliest to make a name for himself. After two seasons playing a major role for the G League's Delaware Blue Coats, the 6-foot-4 guard could be ready to make the leap into a bench role as one of the better defenders on the roster. Rookie guard Terquavion Smith gets buckets and does some little things but, especially given that he's on a two-way contract, he's likely to spend time polishing his game with the Blue Coats.
There's also Tyrese Maxey, of course, but the young guard has already started becoming more and more known across the league as a fearsome scorer. Many hoops fans are awaiting a leap to All-Star status, which could be aided by the increased responsibility left behind by Harden's potential absence. A breakout to that level wouldn’t shock most people.
Out of everyone on the Sixers, the player most likely to turn some additional heads this season is Paul Reed. Young enough to expect growth and good enough to already have an apparent role carved out, the 24-year-old, 6-foot-9 big man is due to have a huge season.
Sixers fans already love Reed to death. In the 2023-24 NBA season, it's increasingly likely that the greater basketball audience will learn more about Bball Paul as he enjoys a breakout season for the Sixers.
Paul Reed will shock the world with a breakout 2023-24 NBA season
The stats — 4.2 points and 3.8 rebounds per game in 10.9 minutes last season — don’t indicate that anything special is in the works for Paul Reed. Even when he started playing consistent minutes, the numbers didn’t jump out.
But everything else did. Reed's energy is impossible to miss. He's everywhere all at once, making plays or igniting chaos in some way. This should be Reed's first season where he is the definitive backup center at the beginning of the year, providing some job security that allows him to be his true, full self on the court.
Reed is a switchable defender from the center spot who shoots almost exclusively in the paint and has shown the ability to slam down putbacks and finish under the rim with layups. The rates at which he records steals and blocks were some of the absolute best in the league last season, grading out at (respective to his position) the 99th percentile in steal percentage and 94th percentile in blocks percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. Last season, only nine other players who played at least 600 minutes were in the 90th percentile in both.
Reed's role with Sixers
The Sixers seem likely to ask a whole lot more out of Reed this season. As Nick Nurse embarks on his first season as the Sixers' head coach, players are expecting a lot of different, unique schemes. He hasn’t revealed many specifics yet but he did say that he plans to utilize a frontcourt of Reed and Joel Embiid. Among many things, it means that Reed will have become more of a perimeter shooter.
In his 24 career G League games, Reed took 24.1 of his jumpers from behind the arc and converted on 44.1 of such looks. The volume, efficiency and repertoire of Reed's three-point prowess match closely to Kyle Anderson, who last season shot 41.0 percent from deep with a three-point attempt rate of 21.2 percent while taking mostly spot-up triples. The hearts of defenders don’t skip a beat when Anderson cranks up his slow-motion release but they also won’t let his shot go up without a contest.
Reed has always worked on his jumper, finishing practices by getting different reps in with the training staff. He has worked on running into a spot and firing as well as simply working on his shot after a stationary catch. If he can become someone that defenses have to account for on the perimeter, even slightly, it will go a long way.
Paul Reed shooting work after practice today #Sixers pic.twitter.com/dQeWniKtUB
— Ky Carlin (@Ky_Carlin) October 4, 2023
The speed of the NBA game and his role with the Sixers under former coach Doc Rivers hasn’t allowed Reed to show off his jumper, as he has attempted just 23 (and made five) in 159 games across the regular season and playoffs. This could be the season it finally happens. On top of the countless hours of work spent on his shooting ability, Reed may have to get used to putting the ball up in order to unlock a new look for Philly.
Floor spacing?
The questionable floor spacing of a prospective front count of Embiid and Reed has long been the factor that makes it hard to gauge its effectiveness. While Embiid does operate mostly around the high post now, allowing Reed to roam the baseline, it will be tough to go to four-out looks around Embiid if the defense has no respect for Reed's jumper.
In the Sixers' first preseason game, Reed took the opportunity to shoot an open three, showing no hesitation. He missed the bucket but that should be the seed from which a confident shooter blossoms. Reed simply needs to be solid enough to make defenders not leave him wide open.
He also has to keep bringing the energy, which he showed in the preseason with a pair of offensive boards during his 23 minutes. Rebounding is a skill that is dying in value in the NBA. Players who win out on the boards more often than others aren’t seen as integral to their team unless they also have other talents, notably the ability to defend. While the Sixers may not play Reed more specifically because he's a great rebounder, it's a skill of his that will undoubtedly benefit them.
Last season, the Sixers ranked 27th in second-chance points per game, per NBA.com. Their lineup wasn’t built to battle on the glass — Embiid spends more time away from the hoop than the typical center, the rest of their guys were tasked with spotting up. Reed is a quick jumper with the strength and mobility to track down and fight for loose balls. Those skills should be beneficial to an offense that already has highly talented creators.
Defensive impact
Defensively, a Reed-Embiid pairing gives the Sixers a great amount of size without sacrificing too much switchability. Reed's frequent fouling looms as the ultimate culprit to his playing time. His dynamism on the court has to be controlled to a certain point. As long as he can cool it a bit, Reed can continue his emergence as a key player for Philly. Even if Nurse opts to stick with P.J. Tucker as the starting four, Reed can play his way into more minutes alongside Embiid.
Reed is as coachable as they come, allowing his coaches and veteran players to scold him without letting it rock his confidence. The Sixers will need some internal development this season. Look for Reed to be a major source of it.
