For a player who's so frequently compared to a robot, the idea that Kawhi Leonard and the San Antonio Spurs seem poised for a break-up simply does not compute.
The Spurs – who are coming off of their first non-50 win season since the lockout shortened 1998-99 season (yes, they even won 50 games in 2011-12 when the NBA only played 66 games!) – have long represented the highest level of organizational success in team sports. Also, Leonard truly seemed/seems to fit the mold of Tim Duncan and David Robinson as upper tier athletes whose work ethic and skill level far overshadow their off court personality.
You know the story by now, so it doesn't need to be further re-told. Sometimes marriages don't last, and relationships aren't as perfect as they seem from the outside, but for Gregg Popovich to be losing a 27-year old superstar who's already won two Defensive Player of the Year awards, finished top-three in MVP voting twice, and has a Finals MVP under his belt is still shocking.
With that said, recent reports indicate that the Spurs are fielding offers from at least the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers for Leonard. And with LeBron James signing with Leonard's hometown (and reportedly preferred destination) Lakers on Sunday night, the clock is literally ticking.
Although there's still potential for Leonard to re-consider his stance, he still has a year left on his contract and is only eligible for a supermax contract extension from San Antonio, we should embrace the possibility that next season might look a lot like this past season did for the Spurs.
Leonard-less.
Yet, even though Kawhi Leonard missed 73 games, the Spurs still managed to post 47 wins. Here's why:
Similar to Brad Stevens in Boston, the perception has been created that coach Pop has a “magic” touch with his players. Guys who likely wouldn't excel in other situations seem to reach their ceilings under Popovich, which we saw last season.
That's not to take anything away from LaMarcus Aldridge, the team's leader in on-off (per Basketball Reference). Despite appearing in six of the last seven All-Star games, Aldridge has become one of the NBA's most underrated players, and had his best year as a Spur last season.
The 32-year old big man averaged 23.1 points per game on a career-best 57 true shooting percentage, also posting a career-low 6.8 turnover percentage and a 2.96 free throw rate, the highest mark he's posted since the 2010-11 season.
In an era where the tallest men on the hardwood are revered for their ability to protect the rim, gravitate to the basket, and hold their own on switches with perimeter players, Aldridge is regarded as a throwback. However, when he's able to score the ball efficiently and not bog down the offense, he has plenty of value.
However, when you look up and down the roster, it's a bit of a head scratcher how they were able to post the seventh best net rating in the NBA last season without Leonard. And while they got crushed in the first round of the playoffs facing off with the eventual champion Golden State Warriors, they were only two games out of the third seed out West.
Yes, Aldridge played his behind off, but per usual, the Spurs fielded a roster with a nice mix of veterans and blossoming underdogs. A 37-year old Pau Gasol was effective in limited minutes; Rudy Gay shot a career-best 47.1 percent from the field; and at 40-years old, Manu Ginobili still averaged nine points per game and gave his all on every possession.
On the flip side, young players like Dejounte Murray (21) and Kyle Anderson (24) also exceeded expectations. Neither player had gaudy counting stats, but both provided quality defense, keep the ball moving (despite the nickname “Slo Mo” Anderson is a very good facilitator) and shot well enough from the field to keep this undermanned version of the Spurs offense around league average.
There were also the in-betweeners, like Patty Mills, one of the best backup point guards in the NBA the last several seasons, and Danny Green, your classic 3-and-D wing, who stepped up to produce more in larger roles.
In fact, the Spurs had such a deep rotation that they only had three lineups accumulate more than 100 minutes together last season. And the variance in those lineups was strange considering how little change there was.
As pictured above, the team's best lineup featured Aldridge, Anderson, Green, Mills and Murray. That same lineup was relatively successful swapping out Murray for Gasol, but struggled mightily with Gasol instead of Mills in it.
Offensively, the Spurs took a bit of a step back last season, but managed to defend at a high level still. This seems like a staple of Popovich. And while we're talking about the potential for Leonard to leave the team, and the long-term ramifications, it's hard to think about the long-term without pondering their coaches future.
It was reported earlier this summer that Pop might not coach past the 2020 Olympics. That's… pretty freaking soon!
To lose Duncan, Leonard and Popovich all within about a five year span might be a lot for the team to survive. It makes you wonder how sustainable their current level of success is, especially when Pop will have to MacGyver a roster like he did this past season.
Selecting the high-flying, intellectual Lonnie Walker with the 18th pick in this year's draft should give back some sense of optimism. But aside from that, are Anderson or Murray franchise cornerstones? It's feasible things could take a turn for the worse for the Spurs in a post-Kawhi world.
Nevertheless, if the team does trade Leonard, here are a few packages that could make Spurs fans feel better about losing their most recent Finals MVP:
Again, the Spurs DO NOT have to trade Leonard. Under that umbrella, they don't have to trade him to the Lakers, who might not be able to put together as appealing of a package as say the Sixers or Boston Celtics.
With that said, there seems to be a bit of hesitancy from the up-and-coming Eastern Conference teams to part with their young assets for a potential Leonard rental. So if it comes down to the Spurs telling Kawhi to eat the next year of his career, or them taking anything they can get, the Lakers might be their best option.
You'd think any trade with the Lakers has to be centered around Brandon Ingram, who came on strong last season, posting a 16.1 point, 5.3 rebound and 3.9 assist statline, shooting 47-percent from the field and 39-percent from three. Perhaps more impressive, Ingram – the second overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft – will just be turning 21 around the start of the 2018-19 season.
Ingram's about as good of a long-term investment piece as the Spurs could hope to get back for their franchise player. Having been (unfairly) compared to players like Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony, the 6-foot-9 wing with a 7-foot-3 wingspan can flat out score in a plethora of ways, and with his basketball IQ and length, there's hope he can be molded into a good defender.
Plenty of teams around the league would be excited to land a player of Ingram's caliber, but the Lakers also have other players ready to contribute immediately that could be included in a Leonard trade.
Mainly serving as a scoring option off the bench, Kyle Kuzma was probably last season's biggest rookie surprise, which is saying something considering the season Donovan Mitchell had. One of the last picks of the first round, Kuzma averaged a smooth 16.1 points per game on 45-percent from the field, grabbing 6.3 rebounds, and tying Kentavious Caldwell-Pope with a team-high 159 made threes on the season.
Whether Kuz was in the right place at the right time being tasked with filling out the stat sheet for a team that needed offensive help (ie: Clarkson, Jordan), or he's going to be one of the league's best scorers in five years remains to be seen.
While the Spurs seemingly have an abundance of wing players and would be getting two more in this trade, the third player who's been mentioned in trade scenarios (other than the Lakers potential franchise point guard, who we'll get to shortly) has been Josh Hart.
Hart can essentially play both guard positions, has good length for a guard at 6-foot-5, and came into the league with a veteran mindset after playing four years at Villanova. He also shot 46.9-percent from the field and 39.6-percent on over three 3-point attempts per game last season.
The salaries don't seem to match up all that well, but the Lakers could find a way to take back Leonard's contract without making the Spurs absorb Luol Deng's nearly $40M over the next two seasons. This trade would give the Spurs three young, up-and-coming players who could potentially thrive in a more positive culture.
The assumption is that the Spurs won't want much to do with Lonzo Ball, who had an under-appreciated rookie season, but still has a person in his life (who shall not be named for clickbait reasons) that more than likely is a deterrent to a culture like San Antonio's.
It might not be realistic to get three of the four players we've looked at here, but this is probably one of the floor possibilities for the Spurs.
Now let's look at the ceiling.
The Sixers are loaded with assets, and after chasing LeBron, are clearly serious about competing immediately. To get into the Kawhi conversation they're going to need to offer third year sniper Dario Saric, and Robert Covington, who's coming off of a First Team All Defense selection.
Not to typecast an international player with the Spurs, but at 6-foot-10, Saric is a very good passer, solid rebounder, and do-it-all scorer who would be a great building block for a rebuilding Spurs squad. In just his second season, the 24-year old big averaged 14.6 points on a 45.3/39.3/86 shooting line, being overlooked at times playing next to Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons and phenom Joel Embiid.
Saric may not have number one option potential, but he has all the tools to be a great sidekick with plenty of room for growth.
Like Saric, Covington's evolution and production has been overlooked at times because of the other young talent he shares the court with. With that said, he's a major 3-and-D wing who's capable of not just locking down the other team's best perimeter scorer, but has the ability to put the ball in the hoop, averaging over 12.5 points and shooting over 35-percent from three in four of his first five seasons.
The big question here is what else gets added to a trade between these teams? Saric and Covington aren't enough to haul back a top-five player, but are the Sixers willing to part with 2017 first overall pick Markelle Fultz? What about the Sacramento Kings (which might belong to the Celtics) or Phoenix Suns first round picks in 2019?
Either way, the team has enough assets to package together with these two young players to top the Lakers offer and still not take a huge hit to their depth chart by adding a star of Leonard's capacity.
Similarly to the Sixers, it's going to take more from the asset cupboard than two promising young players for the Celtics to move Leonard to the East coast. However, after fast-tracking from rebuild to success, to the point that they got to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals with both Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the shelves, it's understandable to see the Celtics stand pat and see how things play out.
The argument against that, however, is in an Eastern Conference that isn't ruled by LeBron, what are you waiting for? Also, considering the Sixers – potentially their biggest rival for at least the next five seasons – are making a push for Leonard, it might make sense for them to finally splurge on a high-level player.
If anyone's worth it, it's Leonard.
Starting with the above scenario, Jayson Tatum exceeded expectations in a big way last season, but Jaylen Brown showed as much progress as any young player in the league last season. His statline of 14.5 points and 4.9 rebounds didn't jump off the page, but shooting 46.5-percent from the field and 39.5-percent from three, while being one of the best wing defenders in the league, showed that he's one of the league's brightest young stars.
Entering his third season, Brown's drawing (unfair) comparisons to Leonard for his approach and development. He came into the league incredibly raw as an offensive player, and relied a lot on his athleticism and defense to be productive his first year in the league.
The version of Brown we saw last season, however, was constantly attacking and incredibly decisive in transition, and improved his three-point shooting by .054-percent (on 171 more attempts, which is significant). Brown might be the best prospect the Spurs could get their hands on if they move forward with a trade.
Potentially joining Brown would be Terry Rozier, who in his third season in the league showed an ability to take on an increased scoring load, efficiently, after Irving got injured. Rozier is more of a scoring threat than a facilitator, but is going to be coveted if he hits free agency next Summer, and would be able to produce for Popovich immediately.
Again, like the Sixers, now we get into the “what else?” stage of a potential trade, where the Celtics also have plenty of cards up their sleeve. Not that they should trade Brown and Tatum for a player who may not even sign long term, but if the Celtics do package both players together they start the 2018-19 season with Irving, Hayward, Leonard, and Al Horford as four of their five starters. That looks a lot like a super team to me.
If they aren't willing to part with both Brown and Tatum, they have first round picks from the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, and more than likely the Sacramento Kings (which they would get back from the Sixers for last season's pick swap) that they could tack on to some of their young players.
It just comes down to whether or not they deem Leonard worthy of emptying the clip for.
While it stinks that the Spurs seem destined to lose an MVP-level player, the fact that he's still so young, and there are teams with assets who are starving for his star power, bodes well for them.
Unless they hold firm that they're not going to trade Leonard, we could be looking at a core of Aldridge, Murray, Anderson, Walker plus some variety of players like Ingram, Kuzma, Saric, Covington, Rozier or Brown. Things certainly could look worse for the Spurs from a personnel perspective.
Life after Pop, however, is another story.
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