Time has flown by as we've already somehow reached the semifinals at Wimbledon. The final four includes World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz as he battles Daniil Medvedev while reigning Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic takes on Italy's Jannik Sinner. As far as Alcaraz and Djokovic is concerned — who have exchanged the No. 1 ranking back-and-forth with each other six times in 2023 already — should they win at SW19, they'll be the top player in the ATP rankings regardless of other results.
But what if Medvedev or Sinner cause an upset and reach the final or even go on to win the Grand Slam? And what will the ATP rankings picture look like? In this article, we will go through all the possible ATP rankings scenarios that could see either Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner come out of Wimbledon as the champion.
Before we get started, here's a quick reminder of the pre-Wimbledon ATP rankings:
- Carlos Alcaraz – 7,675 points
- Novak Djokovic – 7,595 points
- Daniil Medvedev – 5,890 points
- Jannik Sinner – 3,345 points
Despite a rough start to his grass-court career, Alcaraz is finally in his groove on the surface. After winning the Queen's Club Championships prior to Wimbledon — his first grass-court title which helped him return to the summit of the ATP rankings with an 80-point lead over Djokovic — the Spaniard has now reached the last four. As aforementioned, if he wins Wimbledon, he will keep his spot as the No. 1 player in tennis and even extend his lead over Djokovic as he'd have a total of 9,675 points while the latter would have 8,795 if he lost in the final.
However, he will only keep his top spot without victory at Wimbledon if both he and Djokovic go out in the semifinal stage, or if Alcaraz loses in the final, but against Sinner. That said, it looks like we're destined to see both men compete in a Grand Slam final for the first time in what should be can't-miss television.
Like Alcaraz, Djokovic is guaranteed to be No. 1 in the ATP rankings if he wins at Wimbledon — making it the most times (7) the top spot has switched hands since 1983. Given that he lags just 80 points behind Alcaraz and they've both reached the semifinals, the same virtually applies to Djokovic as well — if he finishes as a finalist, he will remain No. 1 as long as Alcaraz loses to Medvedev.
But as we all know, Djokovic is not just gunning for top spot with a runners up trophy — he'll want to win Wimbledon to not only equal Roger Federer's record tally of eight titles at the All-England Club, but also go one step closer to becoming the first player to achieve a calendar slam since Rod Laver in 1969. Victory at Wimbledon would put the Serbian superstar at 9,595 points at the top of the rankings.
Medvedev had a chance to become World No. 1 again with victory at Wimbledon. Unfortunately for the Russian, those chances were extremely low as he not only required Alcaraz to not go past the third round, but also Djokovic not reaching the fourth round. However, it's not all bad news. After all, he is playing in Wimbledon after being barred from playing last year due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
And a first-ever win at SW19 would still be massive in more ways than one for current No. 3-ranked player. For starters, it would be just his second Grand Slam title following his 2021 US Open victory. As far as the rankings go, it would also do Medvedev well as he would be on 7,800 points — putting him closer to the top two and creating some distance between himself and No. 4 Casper Ruud who will have 5,005 points.
The wild card in all this is Sinner only with regard to the fact that he'd be the only player to win their first Grand Slam title should he emerge victorious at SW19 (and he's the least likely to do some from an odds perspective). The World No. 8 is currently on 3,975 points as a result of reaching the last four, which should create some distance between him and No. 9-ranked Taylor Fritz.
If he reaches the final, he will create even more separation, but if he goes on to win the whole tournament, he will jump all the way up to No. 4 with 5,255 points. It wouldn't only be a first Grand Slam title — it would also be a career-high ranking for the Italian.
Here is a full points summary: