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The Atlanta Hawks fought through the play-in tournament to punch their ticket back to the NBA playoffs. For their efforts, they win a first-round matchup with the Miami Heat.
Miami, the Eastern Conference's top seed, defeated Atlanta in three of the four matchups they had in the regular season. Trae Young has shown he is as good as any guard in the league with his dominant win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry will be waiting for him.
The Hawks faced teams that were somewhat one-dimensional in the play-in. They each only excelled at one side of the ball. The Heat are good on both sides, which is why they will send the Hawks home in the first round of the playoffs. If Miami comes ready to play, the series should last no longer than five games.
2 reasons Heat will beat Hawks in first round of 2022 NBA Playoffs
2. The Hawks have a terrible defense
The Hawks' defense would have been bad with Clint Capela playing. After stuffing a knee injury in the final play-in game, he will either be unable to play or hobbled. This will do Atlanta no favors.
Although the Hawks still have Onyeka Okungwu, who is a fantastic defender in his own right, Atlanta's defense has not been good this year. They rank 26th in defensive rating and allow lots of points in the paint. Losing one of their key big men against a team led by Butler is a recipe for disaster. He will have a much easier time scoring inside and getting to the free-throw line.
The Heat are smart enough to know when to target Young when he is on defense. Their offense is complex enough that whoever is on Young should be able to do damage and keep him moving on defense. Miami has a myriad of guys who both score and make the right pass. Closing in too far one of them could open up a shooter for a wide-open shot.
Miami also has a playoff-tested core, which should allow them to continue playing their excellent style of offense in the high-pressure games.
1. The Heat have more star power
Young is fantastic and could be the best player in this series. But the Heat have too many high-caliber players for the Hawks to contain.
Although Atlanta overcame a Cavs team with a stout defense, the Heat have more versatile defenders and a head coach, Erik Spoelstra, who has orchestrated top defenses several times before this Hawks team was assembled.
Butler can match up with Young. If Atlanta tries to bait a switch, Young will likely see Adebayo on him. Lowry can also provide defensive value as a versatile perimeter defender. All three of these Heat players provide tons of value on offense, too.
Miami also has Tyler Herro, who averaged 20.7 points per game this season, to torment Atlanta's defense. Butler (21.4 points and 5.5 assists), Adebayo (19.1 points) and Lowry (13.4 points and 7.5 assists) can all take over the game when needed. Without Capela and John Collins, the Hawks will have a very tough time keeping up.
Although Young's supporting cast has stepped up in the do-or-die games, they will be overwhelmed with the depth and coaching excellence Miami boasts.
