The second round of the NBA playoffs are just starting up, but plenty of teams are already looking forward to the offseason. With only eight teams left in the postseason, 22 franchises are figuring out how they can improve to be at this point next year. Of course, one of the best ways to add talent is through the NBA Draft, and the first step of draft season is the NBA Draft Lottery.
In this era, where tanking and draft pick stockpiling have become more and more popular, the NBA Draft Lottery has become even more important for teams trying to get from the top of the draft to the top of the league standings.
The 2024 NBA Draft is expected to be one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory, but winning the lottery this year means a team gets their pick of the litter. Star players emerge from the draft every year, and even though this class is weak, it will surely be no different this time around. With the NBA Draft Lottery right around the corner, we are here to explain everything that you need to know for the big event.
How to watch the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery is on Sunday, May 12. It will be broadcast on ESPN, but you can also stream the event with ESPN+, fuboTV, and YouTube TV. The lottery will take place at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Date: Sunday, May 12 | Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Chicago, Illinois
TV channel: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (click for a free trial)
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
In the NBA, 16 teams make the playoffs, meaning 14 teams don't. Those franchises all have a chance at securing the number one overall draft pick, with the teams with worst records having a better chance than teams who narrowly missed out on the playoffs.
The two worst teams in the NBA from a record perspective all have an equal chance at landing the top pick, and after that, each team with a better record has worse odds of securing pick number one. The current version of the NBA Draft Lottery has been in place since the 2019 NBA Draft and is meant to even the field and reduce tanking.
The lottery is used to determine the first four draft picks, and the following 10 picks are given to teams in inverse order of their regular season records. The actual lottery procedure will take place just before ESPN's broadcast and is detailed below.
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered one through fourteen will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of fourteen. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
Then, the drawing process occurs when all 14 balls are placed in a lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds. The first ball is then removed. After that, the balls are mixed again for 10 seconds before another ball is removed. This process happens twice more until four balls are drawn. The team that has the assigned combination is given the first overall pick, and then the process is repeated again for picks two through four.
If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded, and another four-ball combination is drawn. Official results are concealed in an envelope and given to NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum to announce live.
2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
The 14 non-playoff teams all have a chance at the top pick. Their odds for securing the number one overall pick and, therefore, winning the lottery are below.
- Detroit Pistons (14% chance to get the number one pick)
- Washington Wizards (14%)
- Charlotte Hornets (13.3%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (13.2%)
- San Antonio Spurs (10.5%)
- Toronto Raptors (9.0%)
- Memphis Grizzlies (7.5%)
- Utah Jazz (6.0%)
- Brooklyn Nets (4.5%) – owed to the Houston Rockets
- Atlanta Hawks (3.0%)
- Chicago Bulls (2.0%)
- Houston Rockets (1.5%) – top four protected or else owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder
- Sacramento Kings (0.8%)
- Golden State Warriors (0.7%) – top four protected or else owed to the Portland Trail Blazers
2024 NBA Draft prospects
- Alexandre Sarr, PF: Perth
- Ron Holland, SF: G-League Ignite
- Zaccharie Risacher, SF: JL Bourg
- Matas Buzelis, SF: G-League Ignite
- Nikola Topic, PG: Red Star
- Rob Dillingham, PG: Kentucky
- Donovan Clingan, C: UConn
- Dalton Knecht, SF: Tennessee
- Stephon Castle, SG: UConn
- Isaiah Collier, PG: USC
- Cody Williams, PF: Colorado
- Reed Sheppard, SG: Kentucky
- Tyler Smith, PF: G-League Ignite
- Jared McCain, PG: Duke
- Ja'Kobe Walter, SG: Baylor
- Kyle Filipowski, C: Duke
- Tidjane Salaun, SF: Cholet Basket
- Johnny Furphy, SF: Kansas
- Tristan da Silva, PF: Colorado
- Devin Carter, PG: Providence
- Yves Missi, C: Baylor
- DaRon Holmes, PF: Dayton
- Kel'el Ware, C: Indiana
- Bobi Klintman, PF: Cairns
- Dillon Jones, SF: Weber State
- Terrence Shannon Jr., SG: Illinois
- Zach Edey, C: Purdue
- Kevin McCullar, SG: Kansas
- KJ Simpson, PG: Colorado
- Tyler Kolek, PG: Marquette
The 2024 NBA Draft doesn't have a clear-cut top pick. In fact, it is possible that any of the top 10 or so prospects will be in the running to go first overall. That means team fit may matter more than ever this year, and the Draft Lottery could have huge implications on who goes where during the draft.
In addition to the top-end talent not being as great as usual, there isn't expected to be as much depth in the second round as normal. Still, there are a number of good players who are going to come out of this draft class, it is just a matter of finding the right ones.
Because of how weird this class is, more foreign-born players, players who didn't play collegiate basketball, and upperclassman college players are expected to be drafted more early and often than any time in recent memory.
The norm in the draft recently has been for young, one-and-done collegiate players to take up the majority of the draft, while older prospects have gone by the wayside. Because of the uncertainty of this draft class, older players have a chance to be drafted high because of the security that teams will feel with their experience, even if they aren't expected to have super high ceilings or potential.
Players like Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, and Tyler Kolek had prolific collegiate careers, but their age would normally prevent them from being drafted high. That likely won't be the case this year. Even sophomores like Kyle Filipowski, Donovan Clingan, and Kel'el Ware had to return to college for a second season in order to improve their draft stock and will still be drafted relatively high this year.
Additionally, basketball is more of a global sport now than ever before, and we are seeing that pan out in the draft. The three finalists for the NBA MVP this season were all foreign-born players, and last year's first overall pick – Victor Wembanyama – was born in France and immediately demonstrated an advanced skillset in the NBA as a rookie.
Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Matas Buzelis, and Nikola Topic are all foreign-born players who have a case for the top pick this year, the former two of which are French players like Wembanyama. For our money, we think Sarr will be the number-one pick this year. Sarr is extremely mobile for a big, which allows him to guard both in the paint and on the perimeter. He also thrives running the floor in transition and as a rim-runner in the half-court. Sarr has even flashed potential as a shooter, which gives him arguably the highest ceiling in this class.
Sarr is by no means guaranteed to go first overall. He would even be a weird fit on the Pistons team that finished with the worst record in the league this year due to their logjam at the big man positions and their need for more shooting.
Parity is at an all-time high in the NBA right now. A number of teams quickly went from the rebuilding stages to becoming postseason and/or championship contenders. The 2024 NBA Draft will only increase the competition league-wide. Fans around the world will be on the edge of their seats during the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery, but only one team will walk away as the winners of the lottery and officially have the chance to take whatever player they want in the draft.
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