The Vancouver Canucks are coming off a phenomenal — if somewhat surprising — 2023-24 campaign. After finishing sixth in the Pacific Division the year before, the squad put together a sparkling 50-23-9 record, good enough for first in the division and third in the Western Conference. The star core finally broke out, with captain Quinn Hughes leading the way, along with JT Miller and Brock Boeser playing some of the best hockey of their respective careers.
Although it ended in a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the eventual conference champion Edmonton Oilers in Round 2 — a series Vancouver led 3-2 — there's a ton of belief around British Columbia that this squad has what it takes to continue competing for championships. With excellent management, the reigning Jack Adams Award winner in Rick Tocchet and a couple of fresh faces brought in in free agency, making the postseason should be the baseline in 2024-25.
But there were a couple of Canucks forwards who had an elevated shooting percentage last season, and there will likely be at least some degree of regression this time around. Vancouver's forward core is one of the deepest in the league, and even better with the additions of Jake DeBrusk and Daniel Sprong, among others.
Still, winning 50 regular-season games again will be no easy task. And if these players see regression this year, that becomes even more challenging. Here are three such skaters who should have a tough time building on excellent 2023-24 campaigns.
Dakota Joshua broke onto the scene and became a fan favorite
It's hard to describe just how valuable Dakota Joshua was to the Canucks last season. After bouncing around between the American Hockey League and East Coast Hockey League early in his career, the 28-year-old found a home in Vancouver in 2022-23. He played nearly a full campaign with 79 games under his belt, and managed 23 points in that span on a poor team. He was also playing fourth line minutes.
Fast forward to 2023-24 and it was a true breakout campaign for the Dearborn, Michigan native. He collected 18 goals and 32 points in just 63 regular-season games, and formed one of the league's best third lines along with Conor Garland and the center combo of Elias Lindholm and Teddy Blueger.
Joshua found an entirely new gear in the Stanley Cup Playoffs as well, managing a phenomenal four goals and eight points over 13 games. He scored a couple of huge goals for Vancouver at Rogers Arena, and fans were delighted when he was brought back on a four-year, $13 million contract extension at the end of June.
This player should be effective again with Garland and Blueger in 2024-25, but it's hard to ignore his sky-high 21.4 shooting percentage in the process. He is a career 16.9% shooter, so not too much regression should be expected, but it's a possibility nonetheless. Still, not even Auston Matthews — who potted a ridiculous 69 goals last year — scores at that rate.
Nils Hoglander's usage will be a huge factor in his production
Along with Joshua, Nils Hoglander could be due for some regression in 2024-25. The Canucks had the highest shooting percentage in the league last season, and the Swedish forward's was 7.5% higher than his career average.
Hoglander benefited greatly from playing in Vancouver's top-six, often lining up with superstar Elias Pettersson — although Pettersson struggled mightily at times in both the regular-season and playoffs. The 23-year-old still managed 24 goals and 36 points, which shattered his career-highs across the board.
If Hoglander can remain in the top-six, there's a chance he can continue putting up offense despite his extremely high shooting percentage. But that's no guarantee, with players like Sprong, DeBrusk and Danton Heinen all looking to make an impact in British Columbia. Daily Faceoff currently projects him as the top-line left winger along with Miller and Boeser, which would be excellent for his prospects. But he started to fade down the stretch, and holding onto that esteemed spot is no guarantee.
“Hoglander saw a bigger increase from his career average, and he also had the benefit of playing in the Canucks’ top six, something that isn’t a guarantee next season,” wrote Daily Faceoff's Scott Maxwell at the end of July. “At just 23, it’s very possible that he just develops more at the NHL level next season and produces similar totals, but it would also need to come with more than the 120 shots that he took in 2023-24.”
Brock Boeser was insanely good in 2023-24
Like Joshua and Hoglander, Boeser is coming off the best season of his professional career — by a mile. Just when it looked like the 27-year-old had settled into being a 20-25 goal scorer, he snapped to the tune of 40 goals and 73 points in 81 regular-season contests.
Boeser was also lights out in the playoffs, leading a couple of insane comebacks against the Nashville Predators in Round 1 and finishing with seven goals and 12 points — including a hat trick — in the postseason. It was the player that Canucks fans always knew he could be after he scored 29 goals in his rookie season when the Sedins were still on the roster.
It looks like this player has found a home alongside Miller, and the two had excellent chemistry throughout the 2023-24 season. Boeser will need to continue his torrid scoring pace if the Canucks hope to win a Stanley Cup with the current core, although it's hard to think he will be able to replicate the best season of his career.
Everyone in British Columbia is hoping that the incredible season wasn't an outlier, but after he missed Game 7 against the Oilers due to blood clots, there's is some concern about his long-term health. Still, he should be a star for the Canucks again next year as they look to take the next step and finally bring a championship to the West Coast.
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