Fantasy football is one of the most exciting aspects of the NFL season. With preseason play coming to an end, many football fans are gearing up for an exciting 2022 fantasy football season. As the start of the 2022 NFL season approaches, drafts are getting started, so it’s reasonable to look at some players to watch out for, including some fantasy football quarterback busts.

Few things are more frustrating than falling for a player’s preseason hype only to have them underperform and destroy your fantasy season. That is why it is critical to cut through the noise and identify athletes that are overrated based on their average draft position (ADP).

Take note that these busts aren’t necessarily bad or unproductive players. They will just likely fall quite short of their preseason expectation and ratings.

Of course, one consideration is how a QB can be considered overrated. Consider their injury history, team situation, offensive line, and surrounding skill such as their receiving corps. This is not about whether these QBs can lead their teams to a winning season or the Super Bowl. This is about whether these QBs can make a fantasy football impact relative to how they’re currently rated.

Based on their current ADP, here are five likely quarterback flops to avoid for the 2022 fantasy football season.

Fantasy Football quarterback busts 2022

5. Kyler Murray

Murray was an MVP frontrunner for the first part of the 2021 season, but his productivity plummeted at the finish. This is becoming a pattern for the Cardinals quarterback, which is concerning considering his dependability in fantasy playoffs. Managers have currently picked him as a top-five fantasy QB because of his rushing ability, although his rushing stats fell considerably in 2021 compared to 2020. Murray’s running attempts decreased from 133 to 88, his yards decreased from 819 to 423, and his touchdowns decreased from 11 to five.

To top it all off, Murray’s top target, DeAndre Hopkins, will miss the first six games of the season due to a suspension. Consider him a mid-tier QB1 rather than your top option at the position. Take note that Murray’s output dropped last season when Hopkins was not in the lineup for the last four weeks. He had an 18.8 fantasy point per game average and 6.3 yards per throw attempt. We cannot overlook the loss of Hopkins for six games, even if the arrival of Marquise Brown should compensate a bit for some of the missed productivity.

4. Trey Lance

The Trey Lance era has officially begun, with news that the 49ers have opted to part ways with Jimmy Garoppolo even if he is still on the roster. That’s awkward, right?

Back to Lance, though. He is now rated as a QB1 by many experts, as his running abilities and powerful arm entice many pundits and fantasy aficionados. Remember, though, that he has started just 19 games since high school. Lance will go through a lot of growing pains in his first season as an NFL starter, so despite a few exciting spike weeks, we should expect inconsistency and too many low ceiling games to warrant a Top 12 rating.

In 2021, Lance only appeared in two games, but he had the rushing ability that piqued the interest of fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ rookie quarterback averaged 22.4 projected fantasy points per week and 60 running yards per game. He likely won’t make that threshold in 2022, but if he is picked as a late-round quarterback, he could carry league-winning potential.

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3. Patrick Mahomes

Despite the ups and downs of the Kansas City Chiefs offense, Patrick Mahomes was as good as ever in fantasy last year. The former MVP was fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) and tied with Justin Herbert for the most weekly top-12 QB finishes (12). Nonetheless, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game in 2021 than he did in 2020 (25.2). Expect that downward trajectory to continue into this new season.

Furthermore, Tyreek Hill’s departure cannot be overlooked as the new season approaches. Keep in mind that the Mahomes-Hill tandem ranks second in combined throwing touchdowns (41) since 2016. Of course, Mahomes can’t be written off as a top-five fantasy option without Hill but his top-tier weekly potential without Hill is a serious issue.

This is especially after a season in which he had a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). Many people will still draft Mahomes higher than they should, and that’s mainly due to name recognition alone. Don’t be among those people.

2. Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow concluded the 2021 regular season as PFF’s highest-graded passer (91.2). He was also first in highly sticky categories such as passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). In fact, he concluded the season as QB8. He averaged little more than 20.5 fantasy points per game.

No quarterback produced more fantasy points than expected in 2021 than Burrow. That, however, also suggests that he will see some measure of regression in 2022. Remember, too, that Burrow ran for only 118 yards and two touchdowns last year. That’s fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is infamous for being an unreliable rushing QB.

Burrow should see an increase in passing volume this year, but that will not improve his efficiency. He was also extremely sack-prone last season, so keep that in mind. The Bengals quarterback has clearly entered the debate as one of the league’s best real-life NFL QBs. Still, based on early ADP and anticipated production, we should consider him overrated.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “busts” category feels like grasping at low-hanging fruit. Still, not having his No. 1 WR Davante Adams will hamper his fantasy ceiling. In 2021, Rodgers’ one game without Adams resulted in his third-worst fantasy performance of the season. Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top eight came during a season in which Adams missed four games.

Rodgers-Adams’ synergy was never more evident in or near the red zone. That dynamic combination producing 64 touchdowns – double-digits on average – since 2016. That’s 23 more than the next closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). During that time, Adams has received 33% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes.

Sure, the Packers have boosted their wide receiver corps, but it’s still unlikely that they’ll compensate for Adams’ output, particularly in the red zone. The reality is Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022 is difficult to justify without Adams.

Rodgers will be the biggest fantasy flop this season. That’s considering experts rated him ahead of players like Russel Wilson and Matthew Stafford. He lacks a proven WR1 and will depend on Lazard and two youngsters to come up. This season, the Packers will rely more on their running game and defense. That reduces Rodgers’ scoring potential and decreases his weekly upside. You should not choose Rodgers as a QB1 this season due to his lack of upside and weapons.