Big names, proven veterans, and players changing places commonly make up the group that fits into the ‘overvalued’ category in fantasy football rankings. And especially in the 2020 NFL season with how many proven quarterback options changed places, their production expectations may have followed them to their new homes, but the results will not.
QBs are the forbidden fruit of every single fantasy football draft, as they are the players that everyone wants shares of, especially the Tier 1 guys, yet most are not able to get them. And those who do, commonly are forced into drafting them much too early due to their deep-seated obsession in needing to leave their draft with them.
This article will dive into five of the most overvalued fantasy football QBs for the 2020 season, based on unreachable expectations and much too high of an average draft position (ADP).
These rankings are considering a 12-team league using a snake draft and a full point-per-reception scoring system.
5. Aaron Rodgers
Projected ADP – 8.04
The Green Bay Packers have a generational talent at the starting QB position, something that not many teams are able to boast. But with how he has taken a bit of a dive in terms of production, his draft stock has not followed that downward trend.
The 13-3 Packers team of the 2019 season was absolutely blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship round, and while Rodgers was not at fault here (hint – it was the fault of the defense), he was certainly not as sharp to end the season as the 13-3 record dictates he should have been.
By not having added any sort of receiving help this offseason (except for Devin Funchess, who ultimately opted out due to the ongoing pandemic), Davante Adams is the top guy for Rodgers to throw to, with Allen Lazard and the rest of the receivers not bringing a ton of proven consistency.
People love to pick Rodgers due to his notoriety and the fact that his Hall of Fame talent has proven to be league winning in the past. But he is certainly over that hump in his career, and while he still is a top-10 option in the league, he is not putting up QB10 or above numbers on a consistent basis.
Any selection that is a single-round selection should be made with a ton of concern.
4. Baker Mayfield
Projected ADP – 12.11
The Cleveland Browns sincerely have been on the cusp of being on the cusp of contention for what feels like ten years in a row now. And while they do have a new head coach which will hopefully lead to better offensive opportunities, that does not mean that Baker Mayfield will be great.
Under the similar microscope that Rodgers is in terms of how his name makes him a popular draft choice, the former Oklahoma Sooner has been a spark plug ever since he entered the league, something that has led to him being seen as a big-time fantasy breakout option. Yet, that breakout still has not really happened, nor does it look like this upcoming season will be that point either.
Even with having both Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry as his receivers, plus free-agent signee Austin Hooper as a new shiny tight end, combined with the two-headed monster that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form out of the backfield, Mayfield has had a tough time living up to his draft stature so far.
He has been an above-average QB since he entered the league, yes. But his tools lend themselves to be thinking that he could be so much better than he has been.
Mayfield is a solid QB2 fantasy football option if you need a bye-week filler, but unless the rest of the league is scooping of QBs left and right, he should (hopefully) not be an every-week starter for you.
3. Cam Newton
Projected ADP – 10.05
Expectations are naturally high for the former League MVP, yet Cam Newton has so much uncertainty surrounding him as he enters into his first season as a member of the New England Patriots, that he may be tough to trust for a full season.
The former Panthers QB has obviously shown his career ceiling, yet the style of offense that the Patriots run does not really fit into the repertoire that Newton boasts, which can be an absolute nightmare for fantasy drafters that invest a decently-high draft pick into the former Auburn Tiger.
Newton is coming into a new offensive scheme that seems to be devoid of solid weapons, and, outside of James White and Julian Edelman, the cupboard looks to be kinda bare up in Foxborough.
Now, landing with the Pats could not represent a much better landing spot for Newton, yet that kind of outcome does not necessarily lend itself to producing top-tier fantasy numbers, albeit he will be put up decent stats.
His draft projects will most likely supersede any sort of production that he will end up with this season – however, in a dynasty sense, he is on a one-year deal that can lend itself to being a prove-it deal that leads to a long-term deal down the road, either in New England or with a different team.
Tread lightly here, as Newton’s projections may lend themselves to a bounce-back year, but a high selection of him could end up in disaster.
2. Ryan Tannehill
Projected ADP – 13.05
Having led the Tennessee Titans to results that not many even thought to be possible, Ryan Tannehill played himself into a $100+ million deal, a number that probably was just an afterthought after how he played while with the Miami Dolphins.
But Tannehill, who, outside of last season, has commonly faced injury issues almost every year of his career, runs the offense that relies on the run to open up its passing attack – but Derrick Henry’s production and touches cannot resemble that kind of girth this year if they want him to be able to play out the entirety of his long-term extension that he just signed.
Couple that with Jack Conklin having departed this offseason, and you have yourselves a sticky situation, one that does not lend itself to Tannehill coming out on top. The need to rely so heavily on the run game has helped AJ Brown break out in his young NFL career, but with Adam Humphries and Corey Davis as the remaining top WR options on the team, Tannehill has a below-average cupboard of WR weapons at his disposal.
Tannehill can still boast QB15 fantasy football numbers or above, but the likelihood of that happening is all dependent on the usage and efficiency of Henry and the OL, which will be a tough situation to monitor as the season progresses.
1. Carson Wentz
Projected ADP – 8.07
The Philadelphia Eagles cannot stay healthy – sound like a familiar line by chance?
That is because it is all too familiar, and it has struck the team again this offseason, and it has, yet again, involved Carson Wentz.
Without a solid starting core of WRs for Wentz to utilize, and with Miles Sanders fighting through an injury, plus with the OL being decimated, the likelihood of Wentz staying healthy for the entirety of the regular season looks as likely as winning the lottery at this point, unfortunately.
Wentz is a big name, and his on-field production has been one of the best in the league when he is healthy. But that is such a huge potential element there, something that, as a fantasy owner, you cannot be heavily reliant on.
Now, if you are sold on getting Wentz, then make sure a safety valve option, like a Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Burrow, or a late-round option joins your squad to help give you depth.
If not, then you will be forced to either stream on a weekly basis or pick off the scrap heap in free agency, something that will for sure not end well.
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