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In a year where so many college basketball teams have a legitimate shot at winning the national championship, the Arizona Wildcats will believe that this could finally be their year again. Arizona has wins over Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Alabama. The Wildcats are fourth both in the NET Rankings and KenPom and enter the final week of the regular season at 23-6.
Yet despite all of its historical success, Arizona has not made the Final Four since 2001. It is difficult to argue that any college basketball program deserves a place in the Final Four more than the Wildcats, as they have five Elite Eight appearances and five Sweet Sixteen exits during this stretch but have been unable to reach the promised land.
Arizona is once again a top-five team, and while the Wildcats are nearly flawless on the floor, factors other than performances could be holding Arizona back from another Final Four appearance.
A history of underachievement
In terms of talent and performance, this Arizona squad is as good as it gets.
This year's team goes eight players deep and all five starters are scoring in double figures. The Wildcats can score from anywhere on the floor, ranking 16th in three-point percentage and 27th from inside the arc. Arizona is not a pushover on defense either, coming into the final week of the regular season at 14th in defense efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy. In fact, for just the third time in the Ken Pomeroy era, the Wildcats are looking to finish the season ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency.
There is seemingly very little standing between the Wildcats and their first Final Four trip since 2001. But we've seen this before. Since Archie Miller took over as head coach in 2009-10, the Arizona Wildcats have made the NCAA Tournament nine times. On five occasions, the Wildcats were a number-one or two seed in the tourney. Yet all Arizona has to show for during that stretch is three Sweet Sixteen appearances and a trio of Elite Eights.
In Lute Olson's two-plus decades at the helm dating from 1983 to 2007, the Wildcats made four Final Four appearances (including a National Championship game victory) and earned a top-two seed 10 times. It took Olson just five years to take a team that was 4-24 the season before he arrived and mold them into a Final Four squad. Olson set the foundation for Arizona basketball, but recent coaches have been unable to capitalize.
Archie Miller coached some of the most talented Arizona teams of all time and could not break through to the Final Four. The same has held true for Tommy Lloyd.
As much as players and coaches want to see that it is not a factor, history looms. Not only does Arizona have to overcome their opponents on the court in the NCAA Tournament, they have to overcome all of the failures and shortcomings of the Wildcat teams that came before them. Each year, the weight of expectations increases, and regardless of how talented these Arizona teams are, the outside pressure has become an inconquerable burden.
Every season could be “the year” that Arizona finally breaks through and returns from the Final Four. But with the burden of the shortcomings of previous teams hanging over the program, Arizona faces an extra challenge come March Madness.
