The Houston Astros have rocketed up the American League standings after a poor start to the season. They were hoping to get veteran pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. back from injury before the season ended. That dream ended on Sunday. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that in Astros' manager Joe Espada's injury update, he said it is “safe to say” that McCullers is out for the season.
McCullers last pitched in the major leagues in Game Three of the 2022 World Series. He threw 4.1 innings and allowed seven runs in that game, which the Phillies won. McCullers did not appear in the remainder of the World Series and was out to start 2023 with a muscle strain in his throwing arm. He has since had surgery and has not fully recovered.
He also missed all of the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. McCullers bounced back to finish seventh in Cy Young voting in 2021 but missed the start of the Astros' 2022 campaign with a right flexor strain. He has struggled to stay healthy and will look to return for 2025, like multiple other starters.
Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also out for the season and are expected to return in 2025. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf but is working his way back for this season. With so many pitching uncertainties, can the Astros still make the playoffs?
Astros playoff chances
The Astros started with a 12-24 record. They were in last place in the AL West and second-to-last in the American League on May 8, the day they lost their 24th game. Their playoff chances got all the way down to 31.3%, according to Fangraphs, and it looked like the run of seven straight playoff appearances was ending.
Since that day, they have the best record in baseball at 45-30. They deleted the Mariners' ten-game lead in a record amount of days and overtook the division. Two consecutive series losses to the Pirates and Rays have the Mariners back in the division lead by just one game.
The Astros currently hold a 49.2% chance of making the playoffs. Despite McCullers' injury, the Astros have the depth in their rotation to make a deep run. They added Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays to lengthen their rotation. Many analysts believe that they gave up way too much prospect capital to land him, but they needed an arm and got one.
The Astros should make the playoffs because of their playoff experience. With Alex Bregman in a contract year and Jose Altuve still contributing, the team will be motivated to keep their playoff streak alive and get back into October. When the Astros get to October, they will be feared as the two-time champions they are.
Without McCullers, the Astros' rotation for the playoffs still sets up nicely. Ronel Blanoc, Framber Valdez, Kikuchi, and a healthy Verlander sets up as well as any AL contender. They need to ensure that Verlander is healthy and as long as he is, they can make another run at the World Series.
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