The Toronto Blue Jays are officially in do-or-die mode as the calendar approaches mid-June. If they play well for the next three weeks, they could easily be buyers at the trade deadline. If not, it could be the end of a promising young core up in Canada. In that second scenario, a blockbuster deal could be in the cards with these three spots as potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade destinations.
Guerrero Jr. was once considered one of the best young hitters in Major League Baseball, but his numbers have taken a bit of a dip in the past three seasons. But he's been much more productive in May and June this season and if the Jays are out of the mix, he's an obvious trade candidate. Guerrero will be a free agent after the 2025 season and is making $19.9 million in arbitration this year.
Although this discussion may become a moot point after the Jays go on a hot streak, it's worth projecting some of the best potential fits for Guerrero in trades at this year's deadline. First base is a premium offensive position and with all of these teams struggling to find consistent production there, Vladito would be a godsend if he keeps up his current form.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs rank at the top of the list because even though their record has been virtually the same as the Blue Jays' for the past week, multiple reporters have already corroborated the fact that the two sides have been in some contact on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade. Even if there's no movement yet, sometimes the early bird gets the worm.
The Cubs have trotted out Michael Busch as their first baseman for most of the season, but the rookie has been in a slump since mid-April when he was one of the best hitters of the early season. His platoon splits are obvious and acquiring Guerrero would still allow the Cubs to DH Busch against right-handed pitchers.
Plus, If the Guerrero third base experiment works out in Toronto, they could even consider him at the hot corner from time to time. Christopher Morel has been the worst defender in MLB this season at any position, posting a dreadful -11 outs above average. Guerrero may be in line to play about 20% of the Blue Jays' games at third base shortly, so that could be a barometer of his readiness to play more third base moving forward.
Seattle Mariners
If we're going based on need, the Seattle Mariners should be at the top of the Vladimir Guerro Jr. sweepstakes. Their offense has already been a hot topic all season as the pitching staff has single-handedly kept them in first place. Then Ty France fractured his heel and left the Mariners without their everyday first baseman altogether.
The impact of bringing in Guerrero's bat specifically as opposed to a prototypical first baseman would be significant. The Mariners rank dead last in the league with 677 strikeouts and are 28th in batting average at .223. And even in a season where his power hasn't been impressive, Guerrero is in the 94th percentile of expected batting average and the 78th in strikeout rate.
After missing the postseason by a single game in 2023, Seattle needs to capitalize on a golden opportunity to win the AL West in 2024. Both the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros have gotten off to slow starts, staking the Mariners to a lead in the division that they likely wouldn't have expected based on their current record. Guerrero is the type of bat that could keep them in control of their October destiny.
Cincinnati Reds
With a seven-game winning streak last week, the Cincinnati Reds find themselves right back in the playoff picture after a dreadful start to the season. But if they want to avoid a similar fate to last season, barely missing the playoffs after a hot month of June, they would be wise to make a marquee acquisition like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Reds have one of the most fluid position player groups in the league, with Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all as options to play first base. If they acquired Guerrero, they'd have much more stability. Steer could focus on left field full-time, Candelario could focus on third base and Encarnacion-Strand could compete for DH at-bats if he returns at any point this season.
And in terms of a competitive window, Guerrero meets the Reds' timeline perfectly. Thanks to most of their position players being on rookie deals, the Reds rank 24th in payroll at just over $101 million. They could absorb Guerrero's high price now and then decide whether he's worth paying long-term after witnessing him play every night for a year and a half.
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